Peking, Sept. 17.
We have been treated in the past three weeks to a succession of rumours of war which have made my feet a little sore patience a little sore Kupeikow, spectacular prep:
Nanyuan (Feng Vu-hsiang'
the invasion of northern attempt conclusions with the man who has never concealed his antipathy to him over since the conference which patched up Fengtien-Chihli war.
But neither wishes to reap the odium which would fall on the head of the man who precipitated a conflict on the eve of the Tariff Conference. It was the fashion gan, the notice to foreigners to leave Peitaiho—all were incidents testifying on investigation to lively imagination, but all denoting nevertheless the uneasiness of the feeling in the capital that trouble ie brewing.
Even a day's rumours in Peki could be served up as quit interesting budget of what might pass for news. For instance, today I was told (1) that Feng Yuhsiang will be in Taiyuanta in four days' time; (2) that Hsieh Tu-pi, Feng's "Mayor" of Peking, has been sounded as to his willing or otherwise to serve as Tupan of Shansi; (3) that Wu Pel-fu has come to an understanding with Feng Vu-hsiang; and (4) that the trouble in Honan is just a minor disturbance engineered by Shansi militarists who have been kicked out of the province. 'That was quite budget for one day, but I have no doubt that to-morrow's budget will be equally as interesting and equally as ps possibilities as to-day'
As yet, in point of fact, the troop movements in the north are negligible—that is, for a military-ridden country—and according to persons who have to inquire into the meaning of the comings and goings of the military, are not sufficient in themselves to presage major hostili. ties, being apparently aimless and seemingly without undue significance. Up to the present, there has not been any incident to justify anybody in prognosti the imminence of hostilities. the major encounters are generally preceded by quite a bitter telegraphic combat and much commandeering of rolling stock; but there have been no such preliminary telegrams, no undue commandeer-
I have pointed out before, most of the specific incidents so far have been manufactured by bond speculators and military grabbers of goods wagons, who hope to cash in before the crash finally come not so long ago to decry the extent of pablic 0} China,—but the events since May 90 ' should have disillusioned the cynics. A recent letter I have seen Scandinavian travellman tion of Chinese has talked to him Jabout the happenings in Shanghai in almost the conversation with denunciations the British. There emphatically such a thing opinion in China, and it is all the more dangerous' because it is undeveloped. Even if foreigners will not appreciate the fact, the super-militarists do, as was shown by their scrupulousness to avoid foreign agitation.
'A third reason concerns the hope lof quite considerable spoils after the Tariff Conference. rank folly for either of them to ruin the chance of netting these Proceeds, all for want of a little patience, "After all, money is a much a spoil' as territory—and influence, and isthe way that influence is supported. Competition for the money at the disposal of the Government has been the most froitfel source of friction ever since the provisional administration jeame into being.
The Best Policy For these reasons, it would seem that the continuation of the state of armed peace would logically be regarded as the best policy by the two men who are now competing for the balance of power in Chin: Neither has shown any disposition to rush matters where appeal to the arbitrament. of arms. la con-jeered. Tt may be that a litle time will provide them with " formula of working arrangement, for while there is pence there is always hope continued peace. Observers here, however, are sceptical of ani never lacked its many efforts have been made in the Fast three months. to heal the breach Both Parties Unprepared for War nor Feng Vu-hsiang indulge in a conflict. Three reasons occur to me. First, neither is ready to come to gri Chang Tso-lin has not yet completed the consolidation of his influence in Manchuria, He has tone or two disgruntled chieftains yet to conciliate, principal of whom is the Heilungkiang Tuchun, Wu Chung-sheng. Then he has yet to consolidate his influence in Kiang: where Yang Vu-ting has not had time so far to be introduced to his nates. Feng is equally his plans in the northwest are still only in process of completion; and his second and third armies, in Honan and Shensi, fare far from unified under his comment,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.