July 19.
It was not to be supposed that the Soviet would tamely accept' Ching's reply to its ultimatum. In that message it called upon China to release the arrested Russians and cancel her "illegal that is, for the seizure of the Chinese Eastern Railway and the closing of various Russian organizations. To all intents and purposes the Chinese reply ignored these stipulations. The only allusion to them appears in connection with a de-' mand that the Soviet will release the Chinese merchants said to have been imprisoned in Russia and assure them the protection and facilities to which they are entitled, If these demands are met, China is prepared "at the appropriate time to take similar measures towards the arrested Soviet agents and closed offices.' It would be difficult to find any' allusion in this phrase to the: status of the Chinese Eastern' Railway, which indeed by the closing paragraph seems to be held over for negotiation in some indefinite: future, when the Chinese Minister to Moscow certain investigation:
Such a reply to such a demand closes the door to further direct discussion. The rupture of diplomatic relations. as announced to-day was the least that could be expected of Moscow, Does this rupture mean war? It is gravely to be feared that it does. But the Soviet's action is not necessarily a declaration of hostilities. A further formal announcement is usual, although might unhappily be forestalled by a collision between the armed forces now gathering on the frontier. Thus in 1914, when Great Britain failed to get an surance out of Germany that she would not march through Belgium, Germany formally de-claved war on Great Britain and the latter replied thirty minutes later by a similar declaration against Germany, The United States broke off diplomatic relations with Germany a cor siderable time before she actual ly declared war on her. And thus we may repeat the old adage that while there is life there is hope. The difficulty in attempting to gauge the outcome ig that we are so much in the dark as to the true state of temper on both sides. Nanking has kept its own counsel with singular success; and this, in contrast with her propaganda raids on other countries, is one of the occasions when Moscow appears not to have announced before-' hand in its oficial press what it means to do. The most dangerous factor in the situation is the number of troops assembled on the frontier. On the Chinese side there has been no concealment in this respect. Russian movements have possibly been' exaggerated, but there appears. to be trustworthy evidence of considerable massing of troops from Baikal to Manchuli. Between two such opponents and in such country the danger of a chance but irreparable explosion is great.
There remains the possibility that some other Power Powers will intervene with an offer of mediation, Rumour had it two days ago that the Soviet had actually asked the United States to do so; but this was followed by another report that the latter had expressed its i tention to remain neutral. It is a question whether Moscow would now consider that she could, consistently with her own invite the assist-sibly Nanking believes that Japan will not stand idly by Qefore the risk of a Russian invasion of Manchuria, But Tokyo has hitherto been noticeably silent as to its attitude and intentions. It cannot, however, be too ardently wished that an effort may be made from outside to restore peace before it is too late, and, if it is, that it will be accepted. What has either side to gain by war? Victories may be won against Russia, but it is almost a maxim that she cannot be defeated. China might confirm her possession of the CER., but it would be done at enormous expense, which she had never greater cause if possible to avoid than now. And if the victories should fall to Russia's share, what might not be the effect on the internal condition of this country? In any case, what could war mean, but the death and crippling of unknown numbers of innocent people and the devastation of large tracts of country? It is the universal hope to see the National Government gradually consolidating its power, instituting reform, bringing back prosperity to China, That course is certainly not to be hastened, and might well be brought to utter ruin, by a foreign war, With so dreadful a proof of what war means as is to-day fresh in every mind, no Government need fear loss of face by holding back from hostilities rather will it gain honour and renown for reasonableness and humanity.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.