Nov. 20.
The Interpretations placed on the! sudden emergence of reports regarding the relations between Japan and Germany take a wide range. From a military alliance to a trade pact, from a trade pact to that diplomatic entente which in homelier circles would be des~ cribed as the amiable desire to hold ands, the orities and commentators have their choice. The idea of a military alliance strikes the mind as almost fantastic. Germany has shown herself alive to the advantages of trade and her other pleasantly profitable associations with China. She would hardly plunge into an undertaking the consequences of which might sori ously modify her relations at Nai king. In the purely military sense an alliance with Japan would be viewed by the German General Staff with some caution. Were it to lead to hostilities with Russia, Germany would have to bear the brunt of the fighting on her eastern border to which by far the greater concentration of Russian troops are close, Japan would benefit by; the opportunity given for attacking the Eastern defences of Russia at a time when the main attention of Moscow's military advisers would be directed elsewhere. If success came from such a military adven~ ture—and Germany herself would not be free from apprehension re~ garding, hor other European frontiers—Japan and not Germany would be more likely to profit—at comparatively little expenditure of men and money. Japan too has cause to ponder over the dangers of such an alliance, Dictatorially ruled Germany's, urge to attack Soviet Russia' might arise at an awkward moment. and, if Japan were pledged to move at the instant such a decision were taken, her plans. for cooperation with China and, indeed, the headway made in securing that special position as a "stabilizing influence in the Far East" would be in jeopardy. Moreover neither country, however firm in its opposition to Communism, is likely to find the fundamental policy of the other convenient to the development of} rigid and formal an association og a military alliance. Japan's intensely national outlook has been accentuated of late. Tt has perilously assumed the guise of a xenophobia which constantly finds unfortunate expression. However peculiar may be certain manifestations Nazidom, Germany rather seeks sympathy, always provided her present taboos are considered.
Trade relations between Germany and Japan have been happily stimulated by the recent agreement with Manchoukuo, It is now suggested that by barter the two} countries will exchange soya beans for munitions and thus enable}
Japan' {0 mechanize her army within a shorter time than would otherwise accrue. If this be true then German. munition-making must have attained to formidable proportions "for in addition to meeting the programme of rearmament, it would thus have resources enabling munitions to be exported. "This suggests a completeness of wars preparations which would, make some of Mr. Winston Churchill's figures inadequate—and those figures have already been described us excessive by official spokesmen in Great Britain. Japan, too, has been working her muni fon factories at a great rate and although she may be impelled to, look abroad for certain specific items—perhaps aeroplane engines or tanks—her needs are not likely to be such as to demand the por-teutons authority of a complicated diplomatic agreement. It is true that the recent army manceuvres were reported in Japan to have shown serious defects in certain branches of equipment buf it is the normal function of such exercises to make such exposures and no argument has been adduced to show that a graver situation was disclosed. Again, it is exceedingly unlikely that either Germany or!
Japan would be disposed to enter into an arrangement which might adversely effect relations with China, Much of the present perplexity seems to have its origin in the pretentious assertions which it is the fashion to attach (o what are alleged to be realist policies but seem on analysis to be no more realist than the desire at fitful moments to elevate to a yet higher pedestal a naively conceived nationlism. Perhaps Japan and Germany at the moment are the victims of this facile process of deduction. Unable exactly to define their respec-{ive intentions, they have somehow revealed future possibilities which extensive scope is attached. Prophecy is no part of a commentator's duly. It is sufficient therefore to concentrate on what apears to be the basic factor in the lieged understanding.
Germany. has made no bones about her attitude toward Communism, She is not concerned to note that that particular form of political creed has been credited' with many guises, She would now repudiate the notion once freely current before Herr Hitler came to power that there was a marked difference between German and Soviet Russian Communists. To her the Communist label, which admittedly has been loosely applled by other nations and other governments and other political parties before now, is a red rag the true Nazi everywhere. Japan' has her own ideas on Communi:
If they form a coterie of exiles from their native countries, glad to get rid of them, they receive hospitality—perhaps even more—on Japan~ ese soil. Japanese Communists, where found are not so well placed: they have dangerous thoughts and, the present fervour of the <ominant voices in Japan, they can expect no favour. Germany proceeds on the line that Communists do not exist within her boundaries. She perfectly entitled to take that view and the domestic action which it demands, This declaration of a Joint anti-Communist front raises more serious issues with which other nations are closely concerned. It implies a claim to do exactly what Germany demands should not be done in her regard—the judgment on and, in the favourable event, interference in the affairs of pny country whose political vision may be highly influenced by what Germany {s pleased to call Communism. As was pointed out the other day, Groat Britain is anti-'Communist but she does not take that state of mind to justify unfriendliness to Soviet Russia, any more than her anti-Fascist' ten-doneies impel her to abate her desire to maintain Germany's confidence or cultivate the renewal of understanding with Italy. Sir Samuel Hoare has'aptly compared the possibilities of this new German theory with the religious! wars of the 17th Century. He might have gone further and pointed out that in the subsequent century, the " French Revolution created 'a similar clashing of ideas to the grave disturbance of Europe. From the former upheaval, England occupied with her own civil war in the main—kept aloof. Against the considered judgment.of Pitt who weakened under ill-advised pressure and against the sustained protests of Charles James Fox, she indulged in a crusade. It is exactly} that mistake which Germany and Tapan seek to lead other countries to make to-day. The "war of ideas," is represented as an adventure appropriate to the search for world~ peace. Such a contention is directly belied by the tragic happenings of the moment—even by the actions of those on whose behalf it is urged—and is in conflict with the teaching of history. It would be bad enough if Germany and Japan, forming their anti-Communis front, speciffeally -confined their enmity' to Soviet Russia. but they seem in essence to be adopting the view that, unless other! people fall in with their conception "of what is and what is not the proper form of an upright} nationalism, the unhappy slaves of liberty of conscience must incur: ban of outlawry in the sacred name of totalitarianism. This is stealing the thunder of the now, discredited Trotsky with a vengeance. It augurs ill for the peace which Herr Hitler so flamboyantly professes to ensue or for the stability of which, in the Far East, Japan is so clamant a champion.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.