The Archive · 1930

The New Influence

Sept.

The unexpected death of Mr. Tan Yen-kai has obviously stimulated discussion of possible reconstruction in the personnel ox the Nanking Government. Recent events in the North had already made serious exami tion of that issue an imperative charge on the attention of the Nanking leaders,—However ready Marshal Chang Hsuchliang may be to assume the role of peacemaker and to recognize his nominal association with Nanking, he is most unlikely to Permit facts to remain too far divorced from declared policy. The dispositions announced on the entry of the Manchurian troops into Peking clearly point to the existence of a very definite plan of action. If the Marshal is to act as peacemaker, he has no intention of losing his own freedom of action. He may have rejected the Northern coalition's proposal for his participation in the Government which has now virtually fallen; he will not on that account lose sight of the very real and active resentment which so strongly inspired the support given to General Yen Hsi-shan. In his manifesto he showed an intense appreciation of the desire of the North to have its proper weight in the counsels of those who profess to direct China's destinies. In short the Young Marshal can now count certain ly on the backing of the very influences which made General Yen Hsi-shan's coalition 20 dangerous to Nanking.

The talk of reconstruction which has been proceeding during the last few days has probably been inspired by thoughts on these lines, The first flush of apparent victory in the field has died away. The hopes of Manchurian intervention have been fulfilled but they are not Quite so attractive in fulfilment, for there is no little evidence that undue exploitation of the Shansi troops can be effectively prevented. Once again Nanking is likely to be forcibly confronted by the risk of combining in one person the generalissimo and the political chief whose settled convictions and prejudices militate against negotiation. The great need of the moment is diplomacy, not strategy. The promptitude with which the vacancies caused by the death of Mr. Tan Yen-kai have been filled suggests that appreciation of this point is strongly to the fore, The messages published yesterday were in game respects lacking la clarity. From them, however, it may be deduced that Mr, Ha Han-min is to become Chairman of the National Government and Mr. T. V. Soong, the vice-chairman of the Executive Council,:3 to assume the Chairmanship of that Council, in addition to retaining his portfolio_as Finance Minister. Mr. Hu Han-min an experienced politician and held the post to which he has just succeeded for a short time in 1927. He is supposed to be persona grata among the moderate sections of political thought.

There—seems to be a hare possibility that this at-known difficulties which have consistently stood in the way of reconcilement of the North and Nanking. There is probably no member of the Nanking Government who more fully realises the paramount necessity of bringing the present hostilities to an early conclusion than T. V. Soong on whom the mi ary finances of China lay an oppressive burden. His promoplete the tale of devices adopted by the Nanking Government in its present financial straits, Until a week or two ago thers was an embargo on the export of flour to northern ports, which hit the local mills very hard. The than existing political situation made this a sound military measure, especially in view of the large consumption of wheat flour in the north, and on that tion to the Chairmanship of the Executive Council gives a striking opportunity for the development of a strong policy of pacification. Resting on the laurels gained in the field General Chiang Kai-shek can afford to concentrate his energies on purely military—policies—of which the most important, it is to be hoped, will be that of disbandment—and, recognizing as he is said to do, that the interests of China demand effacement of personal prejudices, he can leave the negotiation of peace safely in the hands of the civil mentors on both sides. He will be urged to consider this course of action by. the march of events as much as by any. thing else. The dramatic entry of Manchuria on the Northern scene puts a very different complexion on the whole situation, General Chiang Kai-shek won prestige as a commander, That prestige might be serious ly endangered without a complete understanding with Mukden on national—policy—a consummation not yet achieved, General Yen Hsi-shan, with much shrewdness, has cut his losses. His successful opponent would be equally well-advised to cut his gains bably has sensed this sul change in the atmosphere and will make suitable efforts to ensure retention of Mukden's association without unnecessary. ly attempting to establish close a definition of the term of that association, Timely ce-operation might obviate the risk of unpalatable dictation.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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