There is little likelihood of any fundamental change in Shanghai's commercial situation during the next twelve months, and it would be well to ponder what that may mean. Trade figures have already beel quoted. The present activity in e: ports is artificial but when that has ceased there is not likely to be any further retrogression, so that we may visualize a permanent foreign trade value of $14 millions a month, compared with a monthly average of around $75 millions in 1936 and $72 millions in 1935. Foreign trade reduced to one-fifth of its previous dimensions over the! course of a year is bound to mean short commons for many fins, and some of the securely established: will possibi find their difficulties insurmountable, but it does not spell the end of the world as far as Shanghai is concerned, Even should Chapei and the line radiating from there remain one. of the battle areas, the position. should become no worse that it is at present as regards local trade activities. Some reduction in the numbers of the foreign community would naturally be expected. Tourist, traffic, and all that it means to the' retailer, which has now ceased, would not be revived. Many of the present unemployed would gradually find their way into the interior, and they might. be followed by hundreds of others, but there would. be no. general exodus, at any rate within a year.
Tt is not suggested that the Shanghai people would be able to live by taking in each other's wash-, ing, but even with a reduction of $50 or $60 millions a/month in the value of foreign trade and the majority of factories remaining closed, there are scores of small industries which would be actively engaged in meeting the requirements of neighbouring markets. Shanghai is isolated in so far as the broad even flow of commerce has been stopped, but even if goods are barred from the Yangtsze, they will continue to find their way in and out through ihe numberless creeks. It may be small, frequently interrupted. trickle, compared with the former steadily flowing, nourishing stream, but it will be something to help carry us a critical period. dears seem to have been exaggerated.
may be considerably below normal, but it is being collected in a manner, which, in all the circumstances, can be regarded. as, satisfactory. Indeed, the chief trouble at the moment arises from the quantity of frozen assets, The Municipality cannot, as a general principle, agree to accept wei-wah cheques for the simple reason that such credits are of no, use whatever to them in meeting a large proportion of their commitments, A, good deal of nonsense has been written on this sub ject of "transfer money" by correspondents to, the daily papers, one correspondent recently going, as far og to suggest that the refusal by foreign undertakings, to. accept ^ei"wah. cheques represented a lack of practical sympathy with the Chinese authorities in their sincere attempts to control the financija]. situation. Nothing could, be more, mischievous nor demonstrate a, more complete absence. of any real, comprehension. of the points at issue, It may be possible for the Municipal Council to evolve some scheme under which they will, be able to aceept.a certain amount of wei-wah, money, in which, case their revenue would probably, benefit mar,)terially, but; any. official declaration that, rates and, taxes may be, paid in this particular. form, is out of the question.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.