The operations in China over a period of three months have severely tested Japan's military machine. The campaign in the North is still the main pre-occupation, although the unexpected strength of the Chinese effort round Shanghai has necessitated large-scale naval and military activities and the general situation has impelled the Japanese to declare a modified blockade of the China coast, demonstrations against Canton and intensive aerial offensives against fifty Chinese cities spread over a wide area. The capture of Taiyuan, the capital of Shansi, the provincial administration has moved its headquarters to Linfen—gives the Japanese a useful point of concentration for support of the advance on the Peking Hankow Railway where their progress kas outstripped that made to the east and west. Japanese reports admit that the fighting in Shansi has been fierce and the resistance of the Chinese forces there has been overcome only by dint of the unsparing employment of the superior artillery and air-power at Japanese disposal, It is by no means certain that the advancing forces will have even now an easy passage to the Yellow River for obviously the Government here is not disposed to make specific announcement of its military plans, That the Japanese would eventually be able to occupy Taiyuan has been generally expected. The question is how far the resistance which the Japanese have met has provided the necessary stimulus to the Government's declared intention to persevere in upholding China's independence. That can be answered only by the course of events as they now proceed to unfold themselves, although it appears that there is every indication that the Government has behind it a solid backing of national opinion and that the morale of its forces has been remarkably maintained.
In the Shanghai arca, the Japanese by feinting at Liuho and in the Whangpoo with transports and fishing craft, have managed to make a substantial landing on the Chekiang-Kiangsu coast near Chapoo. This strategic move has rendered the position of the Chinese forces at Pootung untenable and it is probable that a withdrawal will now take place, as also generally from the Jessfield and Hungjao areas. In contemplating this situation which suggests that the encirclement of Shanghai by Japanese forces may before long be effected, it is appropriate to bear in mind the underlying principle of Chinese operations here. It was not expected that the Japanese would have much difficulty in clearing the districts round Shanghai bu: when it was found that conditions lent themselves to more than a mere show of resistance —the weather was favourable to the Chinese pecially as the Chinese forces, despite heavy punishment and severe losses, were in good trim, the advantages of hanging on longer were perceived and seized. Few observers would have ventured to prophesy on Aug. 13 that for three months the fighting would persist within and on the edge of Shanghai. This outcome will give the Chinese Command a confidence which, if the retirement now indicated be carried out in good order, as was that from Kiangwan and Chapei, may prove invaluable as the defence of positions further west is now taken in hand. It must, however, be realized that the region west of Shanghai has suffered severely from the operations of the Japanese air force and it is not known what organization had been able to achieve in mitigating that difficulty for the purpose of continuing the defensive-offensive by which it is hoped to contain a large force of Japanese in this zone of operations. The Japanese have accomplished their first real surprise movement of the "War", The strength of the landing near Chapoo is not exactly known, Apparently reliable reports mention large figures. It is conceivable that the Japanese plan may be directed toward a wide-sweeping movement which by a rapid concentration west of the Tai Hu Lake might confront the Chinese General Staff with an unexpectedly difficult problem for the defence of Nanking. Much of course will depend on the line which the defence is designed to take and on the measures which have been put in train to check the deployment' from the Chapoo area. It is significant that on hearing of the arrival of Japanese advance guards on the Whangpoo near Sungkiang Chinese troops were at once on the alert to deal with that threat.
The developments round Shanghai and the capture of Taiyuan indicate that the Japanese are within reach of two objectives—the physical control of the five northern provinces, for the creation of the autonomous regime of Inner Mongolia has automatically arisen from the invasion of Suiyuan, and the creation of a belt ringing off Shanghai from the rest of China. How far this carries Japan to the final settlement of her differences with China the event alone will determine. On
substantial than it really may turn out to be. the face of it the achievement looks more For one thing the potentialities of Chinese guerrilla plans in the North have yet to be tested. Until the present crisis broke, Japan had considerable influence on affairs north [of the Yellow River.
She also was no negligible factor in Shanghai's destiny. The unknown quantity is now Nanking. Events in that capital have been shrouded in the mystery of war-time reticence. It is, however, believed that political ce-ordination has been actively at work. There is a clearly-defined war policy to which all sectional differences have been subordinated. In other words it may well happen that Japan has still a long way to go before she can assert that she is within measurable distance of enforcing her will upon the Chinese Government, The effort which she is now making with the apparently whole-hearted support of her people may have to be continued. It will be interesting to see what are the developments which may arise from the Chinese Governments adjustment of its plans to the new phase now about fo come into the picture. Japan can report successes to her people. The question is how far those successes will require further and more elaborate effort to establish their efficacy in opening the door to direct negotiations between the two countries. Both are unwilling combatants—up to a point, Both, however, have certain fixed principles which so far cannot be satisfied without continuance of the struggle. There is the tragedy of the situation,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.