April 26.
Despatches published over the week-end, detailing the growing Russo-Japanese tension and the possibility of war between the two countries, should not necessarily be read as indicating that hostilities are imminent, It is true that there has been a large numbd of incidents calculated to give rise to the gravest concern in both Tokyo and Moscow, and of them quite a number seems to have been of sufficient dimensions to provoke a war. Nevertheless there has been up to the resent, and will probably continue so to be, mutual desire to refrain from hostilities chiefly because neither side has any great degree of certainty as to what would be the ultimate outcome, The recent outbursts in the Japanese press, obviously with the con-Sent of the authorities who exercise considerable restraint over that institution in Japan, may be regarded in a number of different Ughts, not the least of which is the possibility that it was done for the purpose of diverting Japanese attention from the fighting in China, until the time comes for the broadcasting of substantial victory to offset the impression created by the enormous strain to which the Japanese people are being subjected by the Increasing taxation and the higher cost of living, For the past four months the Japanese forces in China have made comparatively little headway, most of the time having been spent in preparing for the onslaught which is designed to bring about the capture of the Lunghai Railway and the union of the Japanese forces seeking to effect a junction from their present positions north and south of Hsuchowfu, Populations in war time have to have victories unless their morale is to decrease. A struggle, which remains resultless for months on end, is apt to prove irritating to the taxpayer who realizes the enormous amounts of money which are being spent and the fact that he has to find them out of his own pocket, and it is more than probable that this latest outburst was designed to take the Japanese civilian mind for the moment off China, and, by preaching the possibility of war with Russia, raise an old bogey which has served the purpose of various Japanese Governments over a very long period of years, There was a time when the chance of a conflict with the United States was used for the purpose of curdling the blood of the Japanese. 'That particular possibility has receded into the distance, but Russia is at Japan's very doorstep, and.the likelihood of air-raids upon Japan' from' Vladivostok has been widely canvassed for years throughout the country, Taking the present situation as a whole it docs not seem likely that either Japan or Russia want war at this particular time, The Japanese have as much as they can handle in China, for it is clear that they have been more than a little surprised at the strong resistance which the Chinese have been putting up, and the manner in which what was originally expected to be a short campaign has developed into one which it is commonly accepted will most likely last for a year or two. It is doubtful too whether Japan could undertake a prolonged fight with both China and Russia in view of the heavy strain to which her economic system is already being subjected for it is clear that large as the expenditure upon the campaign against China has been, one against Russia would be even more costly, not only because of the larger numbers to' be involved, but because of the greater resistance the Russians would be able to offer and. the larger possibilities of Japan having to fight a defensive war in the event of Russia deciding to take the initiative. War with Japan would mean that Russia, for the purpose of further embarrassing her enemy would provide China with greater. quantities of supplies than she is at present doing. It would be in the interests of the Soviet to do so, even if China were unable to pay for them, for the more effective the Chinese resistance to Japan the larger the numbers of Japanese libeld here instead of being transferred to the battlefields of Manchoukuo or Siberia, At the moment according ta Japanese press' reports, for what they are worth in such a matter as (Continued on page 135.)
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.