Let us turn from politics to trade. You all know how promising the situation was during the first half of the year. Prices were rising, the improvement in communications by rail, Toad and air was opening up the country more and more, the standard of living was improving owing to good crop conditions in the interior as well as the greater demand for export produce; furthermore, exchange, both internal and external, had never in our time remained for. so long a period with.such small variations. Proof of this satisfactory state of affairs can be seen in the Chinese Customs returns. At the end of July exports had increased 45 per cent. and imports 36 per cent. as compared with the same period in 1936. Later imports and exports of course fell off, the former more than the latter, but it is remarkable that at the end of the year the import and export figures together yet showed an increase of approximately 9 per cent. over 1936.
The political barometer is still too low to warrant a forecast of fine weather for merchants ju the near future. In Central China, the channels of foreign trade are now affected as noyer before since the opening of me treaty ports. Yet, may I be so bold as to suggest, that for this very reason the catastrophe is perhaps magnified in the eyes of many. If, as seems likely, the Yangtze Valley continues to suffer throughout the spring and summer, the effect on trade in general will naturally be serious, but there will be adjustments. A loss here will become a gain there, and I do not think it necessary to be too despondent. We shall have to wait a time for a real recovery, but the recuperative powers of both Jüpan and China are great, and will, due courseNbe sure.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.