He declared that he was not setting out to advance theories, but simply to provide the material on which other economists can work. He showed, however, that one direction in which he is beginning to make special inquiry is the possible effect of world harvests in determining the turning-points in the upward and downward movements of the curves of trade.
He does not regard this factor as a fundamental one. He is sure that the basic causes lie in human institutions, but there is a significant tendency for depressions to begin and end at broadly the same time of the year and, still more noticeably, never to do so at certain other times.
Without attempting to predict the course of the new depression Sir William mentioned that the increase of the average percentage of unemployment, industry by industry, in the first six months of 1938 over the average for the whole of 1937 was almost exactly half of the corresponding increase of 1930 over 1929. Treating the earlier year in each case as 100 per cent, the figures were 170 for the year 1930 and 1342 for the first six months of 1988. He said that there were special circumstances which, in his view, made it unlikely that the increase by the end of this year would be as great as the increase of 1930 over 1929.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.