The Board of Trade figures of volume and value of overseas trade for the third quarter of the current year show the same disquieting trend that characterized these figures in the second quarter, states the "Financial News." In that period imports fell in volume by 5% per cent, and in average values by 6 per cent. But exports of manufactured goods, though showing a decline in volume of 17 per cent, scored a rise in value of 4 per cent, The returns for the third quarter reveal that—again on the yearly comparison—there has been a further shrinkage in the volume of imports of 4 per cent, and in average values of 11 per cent. Manufactured goods exported show a further fall in volume of 16 per cent. and a fractional decline in average values, That import prices should fall more rapidly than British export prices on the downward swing of the international trade cycle is the economic result of the time-lag between the adjustment of the price level of manufactured goods to that of primary. products. It would appear, however, that this time-lag has, by price maintenance of certain manufactured articles, been prolonged to an extent which has its dangers. Particularly is it feared that the British cost-price structure is leaning away from the general world alignment.
Sterling Depreciation If that be the case, and with the possibility of increasing imports of the raw materials of defence in the near future, the narrowing of the adverse balance of trade shown in the September overseas trade returns may prove illusory. Further depreciation of sterling would offer temporary help to hard-pressed British export industries, but that expedient is not, at the moment, practical financial politics. Nor is a general reduction in British manufacturing costs possible along traditional deflationary lines, by way of wage reductions and skimping of social services. Labour now has its vested interests as strongly entrench-as has capital.
We must conclude, therefore, that the only way to stimulate British exports is to give individual attention to the problems of each exporting industry. One trade may benefit from trade treaties, another may yet discover ways and means of reducing its costs, while others may improve their sales technique. The Government is now enquiring into the reason for the heavy fall in exports that has taken place this year. It should expedite its enquiry and then cooperate with the export industries in devising methods by which British manufactured goods can be exported at a price that appeals to overseas buyers, The B.O.T. returns show quite clearly where help is urgently needed: it is in the cotton, woollen and silk textile trades. The only export groups to show up well are machinery and electrical goods, locomotives and rubber manufactures. aca
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.