im the Colony of Hong-Examination of Recent Statistics Shows that} 27. liability of Members is limited to the extcr* and in manner Improvement in Business has been Maintained prescribed by Ordinzm.- No. 6 of 1929 ofthe Colony)
(CAPITAL
N examination of the most recent trade statistics shows that the improvement in business activity which was first noticeable in September has so far been well maintained.
"The Economist" index of business activity, which is adjusted for seasonal variations. stood at 104 (1935-100) in October, compared with 104 in September and 102 in August.
Owing to the dislocation of business during the political crisis in September, the maintenance of the improvement is gratifying, though it was in part due to the sti-mules given by orders placed for the purpose of speeding-up work in connection with home defence, says Walter Hill in "The Financial Times."
The number of insured persons aged sixteen io sixty-four in employment rose from 11,429,000 on September 12 to 11,455,000 on October 17, an increase of 26,000, compared with deercace of 43,000 during the corresponding period last year. The improvement, moreover, was not confined to a few trades, but included the majority of industries. It was reflected in the coal-mining industry whose output increased from 18.5 million tens in September to 19.7 millions in October; moreover, in the past month the quantity of coal raised was only 33 per cent. smaller than in the corresponding month pf 1937, compared with a difference of 9.3 per cent, between September, 1937, and September, 1938. "Similarly, the output of crude steel rose from 754,100 tons in September to 854000 tons in October, "n increase which cannot be ascribed to seasonal influences. Again, the proportion of insured persons unemployed in general and electrical engineering showed.a slight decline, though this was offset by an increase in marine and constructional engineering. There was a deterioration in shipbuilding, but an improvement in the motor and aircraft, tinplates, and the majority of other metal-using industries. Unemployment in building and public works contracting showed a slight increase between September and October, but this can be attributed to seasonal influences.
Textiles More Active The revival, however, was not confined to the capital equipment trades. Thus, unemployment in the textile trades declined sharply between September and October, and the proportion of insured persons unemployed in all textile trades fell by no less than 43 per cent, Again, an improvement was noticeable in the leather and clothing trades. Calculated on a daily basis, moreover, the value of retail sales in October was 2 per cent. higher than in the corresponding month last year.
Foreign trade, too, held up much better than expected in October. Compared with the corresponding month in 1937 the value of imports in October showed a reduction of 17.8 per cent, against a fall of 146 per cent. between September, 1937, and September, 1938. The value of exports in October was 9.9 per cent. lower than in the corresponding month a year earlier, compared with a fall of 10 per cent. between September, 1937, and September, 1938. The absence of a further shrinkage in exports in the month following the political crisis is one of the most satisfactory features.
The statistics for October, therefor the Government, An increase in Government expenditure alone, however, does not necessarily involve a rise in total new investment. But if new investment for defence purposes is likely to be increased, it is alo possible that new civil investment for commercial purposes in the home market may show a decline. In the building industry, for example, private construction is gradually declining, and the shipbuilding industry is also faced with a further shrinkage of mercantile tonnage on stocks, The real—question is whether the prospective increase in Government expenditure is likely to offset the decline in private investment during the next few months, At this stage no conclusive answer can be given to this question, especially as the nature of the revised defence programme has not yet been disclosed. Sir John Simon's announcement on November 29 that the Government's borrowing powers for rearmament! will have (o be increased above £400 millions is obviously significant, but just how significant it really is, at this stage, no one can say.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.