The Archive · 1939

Tin Share Outlook

The likelihood of low quotas over a long period, which follows from the stabilisation of prices at high levels, must affect Malayan producers in particular, as the Malayan quota amounts to only 73 per cent. of the international quota. So far, a number of Malayan producers have kept their mines at a reasonable rate of activity by producing tin on stock on the basis of the Tin and Tin Ore (Restri tion) Enactment, This policy, however, cannot be maintained over a Jong period, particularly if the export quotas are kept at a low level and thus producers are prevented from exporting their stock. Under these conditions the profit outlook of the tin producing companies is much less promising than might be expected in view of the recent rise in price and the prospective further improvement during the next few months. Naturally, the smaller producers with limited investments in expensive technical equipment, the mines with low ore reserves and the mines working with high production costs benefit greatly from the present tin poli The well-equipped low cost mines with large ore reserves, however, are prevented from exploiting their own efficiency. Unless the quotas are increased substantially next year—and such a move is most unlikely unie: there is an improvement in trade ae vity—a number of low cost min: may even be faced with the necessity of closing down temporarily in order to liquidate their stock of ore accumulated in recent weeks and months, These facts must be kept in mind when the outlook for Tin shares is considered. As a whole, the Tin share market will attract a certain amon: of attention as long as the tin price-level is stabilized well above £200 per ton. So long, however, as quotas are kept at a starvation level merely to prevent the price from falling back, the latter will not be the chief determinant factor in the value of Tin shares. The effects of the present tin policy on the profits of the dustry vary greatly from company to company, so that each case must be examined on its own merits. Generally speaking, however, the price paid by the efficient low ce: producers for the maintenance of ti prices is a high one. The majority low cost mines would fare better if they were allowed to supply more tin at a lower quotation.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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