While it is reported from Japan that public opinion on the subject of the latest Manchoukuo incident is improving, and the possibility of war rather more remote than it has been for some days past, the reports of the interview between Foreign Commissary M. Litvinoff, and Mr, Shigemitsu, Japanese Ambassador to Moscow, suggest that the outlook is not yet at all bright. M. Litvinoff ceted the Japanese demand for the Russian withdrawal from the hills near Hunchun, the secupation of which by the Soviet troops was the cause of the present dispute, claimed that according to a Fusso-Chinese treaty of 1869 {he territory in question was on the Russian ide of the border, and declared that the strength of troop movements in Soviet ter. ritory was a matter which concerned only the Soviet Government which could not tolerate any interference by a foreign Power. In reply to this very forthright presentation of the Soviet side, Mr. Shigemitsu was equally emphatic. He expressed the conviction that M. Litvinoff's reply would not satisfy the Japanese Government, since it was based upon a map which had never been published, and that, unless measures were taken for restoring order on the frontier, the Japanese Government might be compelled to come to the conclusion that the application of force was necessary. Whether the Japanese Ambassador was merely bluffing or not time alone will show, but it apparently had no immediate effect upon the attitude of the Russian Foreign Commissary who pointed out that the validity of Japan's secret treaties was not affected by their non-publication, and to the implied threat of Mr. Shigemit M. Litvinoff made a reply which varies according to the different news agencies. According to one version M. Litvinoff is reported to have stated that "It is hardly possible to think that the Japanese Ambas-or considers such threats good diplomacy Some Governments may give in to such ibreats, but he must understand that he will not find any success in applying this method io Moscow." Obviously, from a diplomatic point of view the two nations could hardly be any farther apart, and the situation in Moscow, on the face of it, does not justify the impression in Japan that the situation is improving.
M. Litvinoff appears to be on sound ground n his contention that the fact of publication or non-publication has no effect upon the validity of a treaty, and if the boundary is outlined as alleged in the Russo-Chinese Treaty of 1869, and there has been no instrument, between the parties concerned, arying it since, then the Russian claim to the hills which her troops have occupied must be good. The question may be profitably asked as to why, if Russia's case-ís as good as it is aimed, she has failed tó make it until this late date. There may be à number of reasons, not the least of which might be that Moscow was content to wait until it was strong enough to protect its claim, and that degree of strength has already been reached. If that is indeed the reason, then the only issue remaining seems to be whether Japan is prepared to go to war to protect the alleged rights of the independent state of Manchoukuo. It is true that Korea has some interest in the modification of the boundary at this point, but it is a very minor one, and not such as should necessitate Japan resorting to hostilities. There s no question of the ability of the Japanese send forces into Manchoukuo sufficient to t the Soviet She undoubtedly has the men and material to ensure such armies giving a good account of themselves, but it is by no means certain that Japan would obtain a victory, or that if she did it would be at an wholly disproportionate to the importance of the questions involved. If, however, ihe Hunchun incident is regarded merely as the proximate cause, and that the m idea behind the Japanese attitude is the settlement once and for all of the meny other and important issues outstanding between Russia and herself, then a complete victory, even if an expensive one, might not be wholly unprofitable, as has already been pointed out in these columns.
But the China incident is responsible for putting increasing pressure on Japan in preparation against h the Japanese have already been called upon to make very considerable economic sacrifices, for Japan is in China and cannot get out. On the other hand, despite all the endeavours of the Kremlin to hide it, the fact is that in Russia there is a growing degree of instability, which would be overwhelmingly increased if embark ation upon war necessitated giving to the military elements that control for which they have been so anxiously waiting. The chances of the Stalin regime surviving either a successful or unsuccessful war are considered to be small, and for that reason it is not believed that Moscow would engage in war except under conditions much more desperate than they are at present.
So the question Bots itself down into a very simple one:—was the strange interview between M. Litvinoff and Mr. Shigemitsu, despite all its diplomatic quaintness, an example of bluffing on both sides? The question is not easy to answer, but if it were a case [of an attempt at mutual bluffing then Japan seems to be in the stronger position, for she would apparently be relying upon a few harsh words from her other partners in the Anti-Komintern Pact to reinforce the Japanese position, and bring added pressure upon Moscow to keep out of war. Both Berlin and Rome are, however, faced with the fact that a Japan already engaged in hostilities in China, is by. no means the valuable adjunct to their own axis as a Japan not so preoccupied, and the policy of realism which has obtained such a mode in these days might lead them both to hesitate before plunging into a war in which Japan, without withdrawing from China—and that to Tokyo would be unthinkable—would be unable to pull her full weight. It must be for some such reason as this that reports have it that the situation in Japan over this matter is easier now than it has been for some days, for, if the considerations above prevail, it is obvious that Japan will not powe hostilities by seeking to wrest from Russia the territory which she has now seized and which she claims to be hers.
Actual possession with some sort of documentary justification is somewhat more than nine points of the law, and while Mr, Shigemitsu may have hoped that his bluff would succeed, it is clear that it could only do so if a threat of intervention by Germany and Italy were used to back it up. From the Japanese point of view the position is an exasperating' one, and reactions to the Litvinoff-Shigemitsu interview may involve a change for the worse in the situation, M, Litvinoff's words were brave ones, but it remains to be seen whether his government could in all circumstances support them with effective strength. The next move will be awaited with considerable interest. It need not necessarily come from Berlin or Rome, but if it does it will afford an excellent example of the anti-Komintern Pact in full operation, Warning to Yachtsmen The adventures of the ci" of the Yacht Kerr, late Eunice, who were attacked. by Chinese pirates 25 miles outside Woosung last Friday, should be sufficient indication to local yachtsmen not to venture far out into the Yangtze estuary these days. Piracy is on the increase throughout the estuary and conditions are so uncertain that the British naval authorities now have a gunboat on patrol duty because anything from yachts to small steame: trading with the islands and the Yangtze hin-treland have been attacked and considerable booty collected. The latest case concerns the Margaret Moller, which was attacked on Thursday evening and two junks carrying cargo for Shanghai in tow of the Margaret Moller, were captured after being subjected to machine gun fire. This journal learns that in connection with the Kerr incident, the British authorities have written to the Shanghai Yacht Club asking that members be informed of the dangers of following their favourite sport in these waters so infested with lawless elements. It is pointed out that unless they are adequately protected British vessels should not enter these areas for the British navy has its hands full at present dealing with the situation and any disregard of elementary precautions will only make matters worse and hamper the efforts of the authorities. This is sound advice and undoubtedly will be heeded by local yachtsmen who, although suffering irksome restraints in for caution and not make the task of the Brit their activities, will appreciate the nec ity, tish naval authorities more difficult than it is at present.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.