Shanghat, to. whom all emittencer should be made Payable. cee June 24.
'Th accountant's _reservation "grrers and Omission Excepted' must be freely applied to any present-day appreciation of the course of events in China, whether in the North where General Sung Cheh-yuan has his own difficulties with an outside power, or in the South where the provincial rulers are depressingly doubtful of, their} own merits, Much has been said) of demands made on the Central Government by Kwangtung and Kwangsi, So far as can be ascertained no such demands have been made although it is understood that the South-West Political Coun~ cil and the provinces under its Influence have their own remedies for the malaise now affecting their relations with the Central Government, Similarly Nanking has issued 'a most emphatic denial of the state~ ment that General Chiang Kai-shek has made demands on the South-'West Provinces or the two Kwangs. 'This journal has received direct) confirmation of this denial from another source, The systematic clrculation of rumours, whether by' one side or by the other, makes it exceedingly difficult to tell a plain unvarnished story. And the rumours have at times all the playfulness of] kittens impishly chasing their own tails or appear to be brought to rest like estimable whiting with their tails thrust firmly into their too receptive mouths. The interchange of messages and speculations during the last few days, the advance and retreat of forces, the movements of troops in the precautionary mood, have produced a general feeling of relief from the acute apprehension of the first days when Kwangsi thundered forth its! challenge to the Central Government while apparently addressing. the dim, distant figures of the Kwantung Army—a Japanese not a Cantonese product. Yet observers who appear to exercise that uncanny instinct which enables them to read between the lines and ignore the printed word, are disposed to consider the danger of civil war real and unmistakable, Tu the circumstances and with all the reservations of those mystical four characters, it is advisable to see how matters stand.
"The two Kwangs declare that) they are financially in dire straits. They maintain that the Centre Governments troops by the occup: tion of Kweichow and Yunnan a few months ago have effectually cut Kwangsi and Kwangtung off from important opium revenue, They claim that their vital need of independence demands more money and that the only way in which they can fulfil that demand is by taking the field against the Japanese—and that, by geographical and other considerations, implies pri marily an attack on the Central Government's troops, or the occupation of territory usually held by those troops. It is said that the first idea of marching up by way of Changsha has been abandoned or modified; the new plan is to advance by three different routes through Fukien, Kiangs! and Hunan respe tively, but it is reasonable to doubt whether this ambitious project can be seriously pressed. The relations between General Chiang Kai-shek and General Chen Chi-tang have been generally supposed to cover a working arrangement which in exchange, for the tolerance of Nanking pregeryes the neutrality of Kwangtung in any dispute with Kwangsi, Counteracting this condition of things, the South-West partisans are asserted to have secured the good offices of General Li Tsung-jen who, leaving General Pai Chung-hsi, to look after the military dispositions of Kwangsi, has spent a profitable time in Canton by keeping General Chen Chi-tang in the strait and narrow path of loyalty to the alliance of the Kwangs. The pecuniary subventions received by Kwangtung from LO
Nanking are said to have been applied, among other things, to the armament of the Province which is well equipped with fighting forces of considerable strength and signi ficance. The pretensions of the South-West to a fervent crusade against Japanese aggression are! obviously subordinated to criticism of Nanking—to use no stronger term. Indeed, commonsense suggests that, were the two Kwangs really to move northward with the declared object of eventually clash ing with Japanese might, a Japanese aircraft carrier, suitably located' off the mouth of the Canton River, could supply an unanswerable argument for reconsideration of such intentions, It is in fact difficult to resist the view that the present restiveness of the South-West is really based on an acute lack funds and takes for its text the charge of dictatorial _autocracy Htevelled—without specific details—against the person of General Chiang Kai-shek.
Tu justification of this attitude] attempts are made to suggest that sympathy ~vith the South is forthcoming from other provinces and Neaders. It has been alleged that} General Chiang Kai-shek has lately been in conference with the Minister of War, General Ho Ying-' chin, General Feng General Chang Hsueh-1 at that conference some differences of opinion have been mooted. On authority very close to the Central] Government it is categorically denied that any such conference has been held, So far as can be judged, General Chiang Kai-shek is not} disposed to make any attack on the Kwangs. Nor is he acting up to the standards of dictatorship ascribed, him. His recent explicit repudi tion of the intention to stand for} the Presidency of China next November {s consistent with his general conduct of affairs as Preside of the Executive Yuan. He has also declared that at the forthcoming special meeting of the Kuomintang Plenary Session, he wishes the delegates to exercise their full] freedom of judgment. It is expected that the Kwangtung and Kangsi_ provinces will be repre: sented and requested to state their! case, The Kwangs, of course, dedo that the meeting will be "packed" and therefure of no value except! og providing a formal endorsement of the "dictator's" wishes. Adherents of the Central Government, however, ask the question whether it is possible for a Central Government to function properly if subsidies, for which it finds the} money, tolerantly-treated Kw: tung and Kwangsi exhaust their! financial resources in raising armies which can be of no possible use in resisting alleged external aggression but must be a real menace to the peace and security of neighbouring administrations under the more direct control of Nanking. These—it would seem—are questions exceedingly pertinent to the presen: issue, clouded and obscure though it be, They point clearly to the reason why intelligent observers fare by no means happy about the outcome of these troop movements. A time may come when the Central Government can no longer ignore the threat to its authority and, impressed though it be by the danger and ignominy of a revival of civil warfare at this moment, come to the conclusion that, failing amicable negotiation, the Kwangs must be brought to' book.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.