The week-end has seen no improvement of the situation in the Far East, and indeed it may with truth be said that the whole of the Tientsin issue now depends upon what Whitehall and the Quai d'Orsay decide what is the most appropriate step to be taken in the circumstances. How serious the situation is may be realized from the fact that when one nation seeks to: bend another nation to its policies, by the use of force against some of the nationals of the latter, a state as near to war as to make very little difference has been created. Directly the offer was made to take the question of the four Chinese, held in the British Concession on suspicion of murder, to arbitration was rejected by the Japanese, on the ground that the proposal was too late, and that the issue had assumed wider proportions, it became clear that the Japanese request for their surrender was a convenient peg on which to hang a totally diferent hat. What that is, has not been officially divulged at the moment, but if the Japanese Press is to be taken as any criterion, and considering the manner in which it is controlled, its reports may be considered as such, the objectives which the Japanese have in view are 1. A joint British and Japanese search be ie for authors of terroristic acts already perpetrated and those which may be committed in the future.
Anti-Japanese elements in the British Concession be thoroughly controlled.
All attempts to disturb the economic operations undertaken by the "Peking Government" in North China be liquidated.
Silver sp, amounting to about C$50,- 000,000, now held by Chinese banks in the British Concession, he handed over to the "Peking Government."
With regard to the first the British authorities by their proclamation of June 7, have done all they can be expected to do. As to the second they have already been doing so, while with regard to the third there is no evidence of any real merit, save in the eyes of the Japanese, that any such activities have been carried on in the British Concession. So far as the fourth item of the above interesting programme is concerned it needs to be remembered that C$50,000,000 represents a value in exchange which it is clear the Japanese, in their present position, would dearly like to lay their hands on.
In their resistance to the Japanese demands whether they are as above, or include others which have not yet been published, the British and French Concessions are being subjected to a siege which may imperil the lives of British subjects and French citizens and possibly of other third-party nationals either by ation, or by the outbreak of commotions which may be considered inevitable when large numbers of Chinese deprived of their sustenance. There appeal to be three courses open to the British Government to meet this threat short of going to war, the removal of Japan from the list of "most favoured" nations, denunciation of the Anglo-Japanese Treaty of 1911, closing the markets of Great Britain and of the British Crown Colonies to the Japanese, and thirdly the imposition of heavy tariffs on Japanese goods. All considerations relating to the question of the notice to Japan which may be quired under treaty may be completely ignored; Japan's disregard for commitments of this nature provides all the precedent necessary for any such step. There is some difficulty with regard to the trade of the Dominions, and they might be reluctant to follow suit, but it should not be beyond the financial ability of Great Britain to afford them adequate compensation for loss of trade if they decided to follow suit. The complete closing of the British Empire to Japanese trade, or the subjection of it to very manifest disadvantages should not present insuperable financial difficulties, and might in the long run form the cheapest method of impressing upon Japan that limits to British patience are not unreachable.
If for the moment France has not been mentioned it should be pointed out that while the country primarily aimed at is Great Britain, France has been dragged in, and there is between the two Powers the completest understanding and willingness to cooperate, demonstrating that while Japan would prefer to pick off the Occidental Powers piecemeal she is unlikely to succeed. The United States, while sympathetically watching developments, is not up to the present involved. There is no knowing when they will be, for there is always the danger that the present situation in Tientsin might lead to Americans being involved to their disadvantage. They are, nevertheless, being besieged in exactly the same way as all other foreigners resident in the British and French Concessions, and may with them even suffer more. The Japanese may argue that such nationals need not reside in the Concessions, but the answer to that contention is that the Japanese have no right to interfere with them no matter where they may care to live. That sentiment in the United States is in favour of the Powers which are thus being attacked in China is indicated by the Press comment which has been received. Public opinion is being outraged by what is going on, and if Washington finally finds itself obliged to depart from its present attitude of watchful waiting, there can be little doubt that it will receive the support of the majority in the country; indeed it will take very little now to crystallize American opinion in favour of even a stronger line in the Pacific than Washington has taken up to the present, though even upon that score there is no ground whatever for complaint. Such serious developments would probably be averted were the Japanese nation not being dragged headlong into further complications by the Army which has fairly got the bit between its teeth. Behind the asseverations *cf complete support for what it is doing in China, there is to be noticed signs of anxiety in more than one influential quarter, and it might almost be taken for granted that in some circles at least the gravest concern is being felt lest Japan is obliged to do what she looks to be on the verge of doing—biting off more than she can conveniently chew. If she does it will not be for the first time.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.