Both in Europe and the Far East there have been developments during the past week which may have an important bearing upon the future, and in neither case has there been anything in the nature of a real improvement in the general situation. The principal question which has been agitating the minds of statesmen in Europe has undoubtedly been that of Danzig. It was generally rumoured that the week-end, which has just finished, would see the coup commenced in the Free City to bring about its return to the Reich. Large numbers of Germans filtered into the port from East Prussia, uniformed men appeared on the streets, and there were reports of arms and munitions being smuggled into the port at night and distributed against future developments. British statesmen uttered grave warnings as to the attitude Great Britain, and France would adopt in the event of any attempt forcibly to seize Danzig, and the general impression is created that Germany, while persisting in her endeavour to include Danzig within the Reich will endeavour to do so in a manner which would appear to relieve her of the responsibility of commencing overt warfare. Such a move will in fact deceive no one, and the position at the moment is that if Poland desires to resist the incorporation of Danzig in the Reich, it will not much matter by what means Germany may seek to attain her ends; Poland will be able to depend upon that assistance which has been promised her. The new tactics which have been adopted by the Germans are aptly described as "boring from within," and it is by the adoption of this method and the abandonment of armed force by Germany herself that Berlin hopes to escape the obloquy of having forced a resort to arms and the intervention of Great Britain and France. As it happened nothing occurred over the week-end and those prognosticators who have been confounded in prophecy are now endeavouring to decide upon a new date when trouble will be precipitated. There are, of course, plenty of indications that a crisis is nearing, and it is generally conceded that the coming three months will prove to be a period of great anxiety, but even now it would be the height of rashness to assume that war is stil! inevitable. It may require the greatest possible caution to prevent an outbreak, but that caution will chiefly have to be shown by Herr Hitler, for it is quite apparent that, in view of the present temper of Greal Britain and France, if he desires war those two nations, unwillingly it may be assumed, will accommodate him.
It is a regrettable fact that the ne tions for an Anglo-French-Russian alliance for mutual defence has not yet been concluded, and that even now there seems to be no end in sight. The British attitude has been considerably modified since the negotiations were first commenced, and there is rather more than a suspicion that Mr. Neville Chamberlain has shown no great alacrity in the matter realizing that the conclusion of such an agreement would finally dispel whatever lingering hopes he may have of still being able to follow a policy of appeasement. The signing of an alliance with Russia such as is desired would be an act of finality more likely to be understood by the totalitarian Powers than all the powerful utterances which British leaders have delivered during the past week or so. The situation has developed to such an extent that the time for words has almost passed, with the period for deeds almost at hand. The conclusion of such an alliance would talk more powerfully than all the speeches in the world, and it is hoped that the reports of a successful conclusion of the negotiations being likely to eventuate this week will prove to be true. It would be the most potent factor operating in favour of the continuance of peace, for the combination of the three great Powers, together with the lesser states willing to accept the guarantees which have been extended to them, would be so formidable that the totalitarian governments would hesitate to commit that suicide which entry into war would undoubtedly mean for them. Without being too confident it is exceedingly doubtful whether the Dictator states could hope to succeed against even only Britain and France; the accession of Russia to that combination would endow it with a strength likely completely to overwhelm any form of aggression.
In the Far East the situation in Tientsin appeared to show some improvement, with the cessation of the practice of subjecting Britons to the indignity of stripping at the barriers set up round the blockaded French and British Concessions, and the aanouncement that the matter would be negotiated between British and Japanese representatives at Tokyo, and the consideration of the question as a purely local issue. The satisfaction which was felt over that development has to be modified as a result of what has occurred over the week-end. On July 1, new regulations tightening up the blockade were put into force, greater restrictions were placed upon traffic in and out of the Concessions, and the Japanese military authorities declared that the blockade would be continued with renewed vigour regardless of the progress of negotiations at Tokyo. That information contained in a Domei message 1s corroborated by a Japanese military spokesman in Tientsin who declared that the Japanese military authorities were suspicious of the conference in Tokyo, and hoped that the authorities there would "appreciate our attitude." The Japanese army he stated believed that the authorities in Tokyo would adopt a milder attitude than that of the military in north China, leading to "an unfavourable compromise," from which it is clear that the reaching of any arrangement satisfactory to both the British and the Japanese Government will be rendered al! the more difficult by reason of the intransigeance of the Japanese command. It is quite clear from the actions of the Japanese military in Tientsin and the words of their spokesman that nothing short of a complete surrender by the British and abandonment of their present policy vis-à-vis of China will satisfy them. That in effect amounts to a demand that the Tientsin issue shall not be regarded as the local affair as Tokyo and London would appear to view it, but that the major questions of principle shall be negotiated if the army is to be placated. It is most unlikely that Britain will agree to any such thing, and the high hopes which were felt a few days ago must be modified by the realization that there are two Japanese voices in this matter, that of the Government and the other of the Army. They do not appear to have much in common, and there is no guarantee that whatever agreement may be reached in Tokyo will not be completely ignored in China!
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.