There can be no minimizing of the importance of today's elections in the United States which affect one-third of the Senate, the whole of the House of Representatives, 32 State governorships and 281 less important civil and federal positions. There are 927 candidates for seats in the lower house, and 107 striving for the 35 senatorial seats. While local issues will undoubtedly play a very considerable part in some of the decisions ached by the poll, there can be little doubt thi the main point under consideration will still be President Roosevelt's New Deal and how it stands in public opinion. The Democratic Party is said to be confident of success because of the new economic recovery, President Roosevelt's increased personal popularity, the evident support of the small-salaried class of the New Deal, and the reputation of the Republicans as reactionaries. The Republicans, however count upon a pos sible reaction against the New Deal after all these years of experience of it, the farmers' discontent with the low prices for their products, the accusations of corruption hurled against Democrat politicians, and the alleged distrust of certain New Dealers who are argod with being "extremist visionaries"
d too high-spending administrators. It is inevitable that even now there should be considerable heart searching amongst the citizens of the United States concerning the New Deal. It has involved the country in vast expenditure, increased the national debt to an alarming extent, and at the best has only succeeded in bringing about a temporary prosperity which the past has shown exists only so long as the pump is plentifully primed. Mr. Herbert Hoover has come out in the course of a bitter electioneering fight, with a severe attack upon the Administration replying with a tuquoque to the charges of Fascism levelled against him by President Roosevelt, and in effect charges the latter with endeavouring to mix European coercive systems with free enterprise,—obviously a reference to the new order which President Roosevelt claimed at one time that he was introducing into the United States.
Judging from the cabled despatches which have come to hand for the past few days the consensus of opinion seems to be that there will be very little change as a result of the elections, and that the present balance in the two houses will be maintained with but slight variation. The real danger seems to lie in the gubernatorial elections. Practically all the State Governors are Democrats at the present time, but if Republican candidates succeed in winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and New York more difficulties will be offered the Administration than by the election of sixty or seventy Congressmen, while a loss of no more than fifty seats in the House of Representatives would constitute no very great blow to Democratic prestige. Success for the New Deal in this election will mean public support for many schemes which President Roosevelt has in mind. The "Good neighbour" policy towards Latin-America will be intensified, the defence programme will be amplified, probably along the lines which have already been indicated, and long-term preference between the United States and the Philippines will probably be brought into existence. The Far Eastern crisis is apparently not playing an important part in the elections, chiefly because the opportunity for criticism on the part of the Republicans of the President's failure to apply the Neutrality Act is discounted by the general sympathy which is felt for China in her predicament. Foreign affairs generally are relatively unimportant, President Roose-volts "preparedness" scheme and active rearmament efforts having gained much support on the one hand, while his successful intervention in the Czechoslovak crisis has simultaneously disarmed his pacifist critics. In the main, therefore, it may be said that the President is- batting on a very good wicket, and there will be no small amount of astonishment if he suffers any very serious setback at the polls. That the Republicans have been using every effect to improve their position was only to be expected. For practically two. terms they have been out in the wilderness of opposition, and 1940 presents them with an opportunity for a return to power. One of their chief difficulties is that they have not as yet discovered a presidential candidate of sufficient personality to stand much chance against President Roosevelt, should he decide to run for a third term, or any of the other candidates that the Democrats are able to put forward.
A victory in the gubernatorial contest in New York for Mr. Thomas Dewey, Republican District Attorney, famous for his onslaughts on the racketeers, might have an enormous psychological effect upon the fortunes of his party. He has established a following by the fearlessness with which he has attacked crime since becoming District Attorney, and despite his youth is a man very much in the public eye. President Roosevelt has, however, powerful support in New York, and his appeal for he re-election of Governor Herbert T. Lehman for a third term may prove the deciding factor in that part of the election.
The President's sympathy with the! Jewish refugee problem will undoubtedly be of great assistance to the Democratic cause in New York, where there is an important body of Jewish voters, and though Mr. Dewey may give the Democratic candidate a close run, the chances are that the latter will succeed in retaining his seat. Should he fail io do so, the effect may be serious so far as Mr. Roosevelt is concerned, for failure in his own stronghold might considerably diminish his chances and those of the Democrats in the elections of 1940. Much, however, may happen before the next Presidential elections, and while the poll of today should serve as a useful indication of the direction in which the wind is blowing, it ced not necessarily follow that the breeze wil be set from the same quarter two years hence. If the present economic recovery is maintained until then the Republicans may have but a thin chance of swinging the electorate, Should, however, there come another recession of trade things may assume by then an entirely different aspect. Presidential prospects are, consequently very much on the knees of the gods, though as it is so apparent that in such a matter nothing succeeds like success, a victory this year may very well be the augury of another two years hence.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.