The reaction in the Press of the various countries of the world to the announcement, that the United States had denounced the Treaty of Commerce and Navigation of 1911 with Japan, follows along lines which by now are fully recognized, and calls for no particular comment. Looking back, that denunciation follows logically upon developments in Congress, and the only real element of surprise is the manner in which its announcement was timed. It will be remembered thai when a motion for the enforcement of an embargo upon war supplies to Japan was first introduced, consideration was deferred, while the State Department was asked for a ruling as to its legality vis-à-vis of this Treaty. Then Senator Arthur Vandenberg introduced a resolution into the Senate on July 19 expressing the opinion that the United States should denounce the Treaty, and also that a Conference at Brussels should be convened to determine whether Japan had violated the Nine Power Treaty. The introduction of such a resolution by a man who is considered the probable Republican candidate for election as president, and the knowledge that a large number of his followers supported the move, considerably strengthened President Roosevelt's position, knowing as he did of the certainty of the support of his own party. There was a possibility that some of the isolationists would have opposed this step, but even amongst their ranks there is reported to be support for what President Roosevelt has done. The significance of the step is that it removes once, and for all any question as to the legality of embargoes and any other retaliatory measures upon which the United States Government or Congress may decide, and the general effect of this latest development iz that they Tiave freed their hands for whatever they decide to do with regard to the situation in the Far East. It has undoubtedly been borne in upon Congress, and American public opinion that American rights and interests have not been respected, and that despite repeated protests all that has been received have been assurances which have proved to be without merit.
That this is the real reason for this latest development is made clear by the Secretary of State, Mr. Cordell Hull, when he plainly indicated on Thursday that there must be a satisfactory settlement of political differences between the United States, and Japan before any new treaty can be negotiated. He pointed out that the Administration concluded that the Treaty "contains certain provisions which need new considerations," and that greater Japanese respect for American rights, and interests in China was one issue which required new consideration in China. If that is the manner in which the State Department has approached the problem raised by Japan's behaviour in the Far East, the Treasury can apparently deal with it from a different angle, which need not assume quite so political a complexion. The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Henry Morgenthau, is reported to be studying Japanese gold and silver shipments to the United States, and their bearing upon the ability of Japan to purchase war materials in that country, and also the fact that Japanese exports to the United States are being sold for less in that country than they are in the land of origin,—in other words they are being dumped. If it is consequently decided to place imposts upon such trade, as has been done with regard to Germany, precisely the same result may be secured, and Japanese export to the United States reduced to a trickle. It must be remembered that in this connection there has been in existence for some time a trade war in which such nations as Germany, and Japan have been subsidizing exports for the purpose of obtaining exchange, and in the case of the latter undoubtedly for the additional financing of the purchase of war materials. If at some time after the expiry of the notice to denounce the treaty it is found that the United States have on the one hand placed embargoes on the export of war materials, and on the other adequate taxation upon Japanese exports to the United States, there will have taken place only what could be expected in the light of the conditions prevailing.
Japanese official reaction to the whole affair is contained in a statement issued by the Foreign Office in Tokyo, declaring inability to understand the suddenness of the abrogation of the treaty or to grasp the true motive underlying the American action. It concludes with the statement:—
A new situation is now fast developing in East Asia. The Japanese Government have long been hoping that other countries of the world would frankly recognize this fact. In case the American Government desire to conclude a new Treaty with Japan in conformity with this new situation in East Asia, the Japanese Government, of course, will be glad to do so.
The Government of the United States will, it has been made perfectly clear, recognize no new order in East Asia which infringes the rights and interests of their people in China, and for the moment it may be assumed that the two Governments are very far apart. The determination in Washington to insist upon full observance and respect of American rights in China has at no time faltered, and, with the support which is obviously behind the President in his latest move, there is every reason to believe that it will not be weakened. Should the next six months unfortunately lead to the sanctions, and retaliation which in certain events may be expected, the balance would seem to be in favour of the United States. They are prepared in certain circumstances to place embargoes on war materials which in itself means the sacrifice of a very considerable amount of American trade with Japan, the loss of the remainder would not prove so severe to the United States as would the reduction of Japanese exports to America be to Japan. The significance of the whole matter lies in the fact that Tokyo has been warned by so powerful a nation as the United States that the application of economic measures against Japan is not an idle dream, but may become an urgent matter of very practical politics, and ultimately have a very important bearing upon future trends in East Asia.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.