It is now generally conceded that British industry is preparing, slowly and painfully, to clamber from the trough of the 1937-38 recession. Even in the crisis month of September "The Economist" Index of Business Activity rose, from 102% in the previous month, to 103%. The steady bearing of "The Financial News" Ordinary share index provides, moreover, proof of the faith of the investing community in the country's recuperative powers. Is this faith, expressed in statistical form, likely to be justified? Our contributor "Ilex" says he har reached the conclusion that there is more than a possibility that the recovery phase of the present cycle may begin early in 1939.
Even if this comforting conclusion is borne out, however—and it is merely an individual, though a reasoned, view—the pace of recovery will not everywhere be geared to the same speed. Certain industries with a strong armament equity may have a relatively high gearing, while others may run for a time in low gear, even if there is no considerable intensification of rearmament.
In what order of recovery precedence, then, could we place the major British industries? After the 1931-32 depression one of the first industries to enter the convalescent stage was the cotton textile industry. That industry has been more gravely distressed in the past recession than any other, and it cannot be without significance that forwardings of raw cotton to the mills in October were at a higher rate than in any month since March last. In the last cyclical upturn the iron and steel trade came in late but there are distinct signs that, in the next recovery, it may be in the; forefront—production of crude steel in September rose from 658,900 to 754,700 tons.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.