The Archive · 1938

Contrast With 1929

Unless the situation deteriorates very greatly there seems to be no likelihood of a repetition of the vicious downward spiral which developed in 1929/32, when the rigidity of fixed charges such as wages kept the cost of manufactured goods high relatively to falling agricultural products and the disparity between the two dried up the effective demand {from farming countries for factory products which led to the throwing out of workers whose buying power }for farm products was, in turn, impaired. To-day the financial position of primary producing countries very much stronger; money is easy [and likely to continue so; and gov-4'ernments everywhere have assumed some degree of responsibility for the course of events, as instanced by crop contro in the United States. The restriction schemes covering Copper, Tin, Rubber etc. are at last becoming {workable though the time-lag is 4 technically insuperable and fluctuations cannot be eradicated.

It has become clear in retrospect that at its peak the market had dis-caumed the favourable prospects of industry. It had not, however, assumed the character of a boom when prices lose touch with all reasonable expectations of probable earnings. Factories working at capacity and rising costs which could not always be passed on to consumers indicated that the upper limit of profits had about teen reached and that though earnings would be maintained the scope for capital appreciation on shares was now limited.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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