The communique issued at the conclusion of the eighth session of the Balkan Entente conference in Belgrade is of considerable importance as indicating complete agreement between the four States which comprise it, namely, Greece, Rumania, Turkey and Yugoslavia, and there is every reason for supposing that stability will be maintained in that part of Europe for some time to come. The communique recorded the unity and common interests of the four member nations, and voiced their decision "to watch in common over the safekeeping of the right to independence and to national territory." The Conference has resulted in a diplomatic defeat for Germany, which all along had been seeking to stimulate rivalry of interests, so that out of the resulting disorder she would obtain benefits, which are at present denied her. There is now no question of increasing Entente trade exchanges with the Reich. The pressure, which Turkey brought to bear upon Bulgaria to declare that it would not press the matter of the Dobrudja until after the conclusion of the present war, had the result of considerably relieving Rumanian anxieties, while similar assurance regarding Hungary's claim on Transylvania was equally gratifying. In the absence of an immediate menace from those two countries, the tendency of Rumania to swing into the German orbit was halted, and though, doubtless, she will continue to supply Germany with goods, consonant with her status as a neutral, the probability of the Reich being able to bring pressure upon her to do more than that, has been rendered remote in the extreme, and the solidarity of the Entente has been reinforced in a manner which should secure for the Balkans stable conditions for at least another seven years.
It may be within that period that Hungary and Bulgaria will be attracted towards membership in the Entente, when the question of the integrity of "national territory" shall have been settled satisfactorily all round. Such a possibility cannot but fail to please Italy which all along has desired a tranquil Balkan Peninsula.
If the Allies, and Italy are pleased over the decisions reached by the conference, Germany and Russia will certainly not be. The Entente, firmly united as they are now shown to be, will be able to present a united fronť against further diplomatic manœuvres by Berlin and Moscow or any other form of pressure they might seek to bring to bear collectively or individually. There is still one aspect of the matter which is not clear, and cannot be until Signor Mussolini has made a pronouncement on the subject. How far Rome would act against further German expansion of influence in the Balkans still remains to be seen. Any attempt by Russia vill apparently be resisted by the Entente th the support of Italy, which might in certain circumstances become material rather than moral. But the continued existence of the sadly blown upon Rome-Berlin Axis makes it a matter of some speculation as to what he Italian attitude would be should the Reich decide to endeavour to obtain by force those larger supplies of essentials which Rumania can supply, and which she is at present refraining from placing exclusively at the disposal of Herr Hitler. The invasion and subjugation of Rumania by German forces would, in the first instance, destroy the Entente, er at the least do it considerable damage. Italian influence in the Balkans would tend to diminish just as it has in the Danubian states, and the possi of Ger many eventually finding an ouf on the Adriatic as well as the Black Sga, is not something which Il Duce can view with any great degree of equanimity. It is true that the seizure last year of Albania gives Italy
Adffatic, for which purpose it was quite command of the entrance. to the patently undertaken, but there can be no gainsaying the fact that Germany on the coasts of the Adriatic would be a very uncomfortable partner indeed.. With Berlin and Moscow demonstrating such a community of interest as to make ideological differences of very small account, it is an open question whether the expansion of German influence in such a manner would be any more agreeable to Italy than it would be if the Soviet were responsible.
In view of all ¢hat has happened in the past, there cannot possibly be in Rome any real faith that Herr Hitler will honour, his obligations to Italy if it does not suit him, any more than he has done to other nations with whom he has reached agreement. German and Italian interests in the Balkans are in opposition. It is unlikely, with all that he has at present on his hands, that Herr Hitler would seek now to provoke the open hostility of Italy. That, however, is no guarantee that at some future time the Reich would not seek to further its own aims, regardless of the Italian stand in the matter, and while no reasonable person believes in the possibility of a German victory in this present struggle, it is nevertheless quite clear that, should the unexpected occur, Italy would be in no position to offer effective resistance to German intentions in the Balkans, What then should be the attitude of Italy should increasing desperation as a result of the Allied, blockade tempt Germany to endeavour to wrest by force from Rumania the whole of that country's output of those supplies which the Reich will stand in ever-growing need? That is a matter solely for the decision of the Italian Government, but, if the present situation is read aright, it would seem that Rome would be obliged to take action not in conformity with membership of the attenuated axis, but more suitable to its own needs and interests. Italy and Germany can have no community of interests in the Balkans. What has happened in the Danubian basin has clearly demonstrated that fact, for there, Italy has been obliged to give way before the manceuvres of the Reich to such an extent, that her influence there is but a shadow of what it formerly was. The complete. understanding which has been reached at the Belgrade conference is, therefore, a success for Italian policy in the Balkans and a reverse for that of Germany. With regard to Russia, Rumania now stands in a better position to protect herself than appeared to be the case a few weeks ago, and though the possibility of the unexpected happening can never be disregarded, the satisfactory results which have now been attained should lead to a considerable strengthening of the position of all the Balkan nations.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.