The prosperity of Malaya is bound up with that of the rubber and tin industries, and the drastic cut in the export quotas of both products had a disastrous effect on the trade of the Peninsula. Overseas trade declined from $1,603 millions to $1,141 millions Exports to the United States of America, the principal market for rubber and tin, fell by 56 per cent, and total exports by 36 per cent. The decrease in imports amounted to nearly 20 per cent These figures speak for themselves, and require no comment, The outlook for the rubber industry appears to be improving.
The restriction Scheme has been extended till 1943. Stocks in the United States have been declining steadily since April last, and ip each of the three months ending January last consumption there exceeded the satisfactory figure of 45,000 tons. The price is now steady at just about 8d a lb. and the statistical position is good. It may be possible therefore for the International Committee to increase the export quotas in the second half ofthe year. The prospects of Tin are more obscure. It is true that with the formation of the Buffer Pool in July last prices firmed up, and they have been steady for some time past at a level near £215 per ton. In spite however of the fact that for some months past nearly one-quarter of current production has been going into the Pool ap-Parent consumption, especially in the United States, has been disappointing. No doubt, consumers have been living on invisible stocks during the last few months. Visible supplies on the other hand have increased by about 5,000 to 6,000 tons, mainly owing to the fact that Bolivia and the Belgian Congo have exported in excess of their respective quotas. These over-exports are about 7000 tons. The International Tin Committee at its recent meeting fixed the quota for April/June at 40 per cent. of the standard tonnages, at the same time making arrangements for the liquidation of over-exports which Have taken place from the various signatory countries. The present quota is 45 per cent. of which 10 per cent. goes to the Buffer Pool, the remaining 35 per cent. being available for the market. The Buffer Pool will reach its authorised maximum of 15.600 tons by the end of April, and, therefore, theoretically, the April/June quota of 40 per cent. represents an increase in supplies. It is thought, however, that if the over-exports are on the average to be liquidated over the next six months, the actual supplies available for the market will represent something like a 35 per cent. quota. On this basis supplies should be considerably below consumption ar% the price structure of the market should be strengthened. I have just noted that there was a large increase in the imports of Japanese piece-goods into Ceylon. In Malaya, doubtless owing to the large Chinese population. the exact opposite occurred, and imports of Japanese cloth heavily declined But India benefited more than Lancashire, and the Indian mills are now a formidable competitor in the Malayan market.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.