May 15. most important development of Euro-y last week was the reaching agreement, un accord of reciprocal character guaranteeing the national security of both countries." It constitutes the greatest British diplomatic success nee, following the dismemberment Czechoslovakia, Great Britain caught to set the anti-aggression system in which, regress is somewhat slow, success: is being indubitably obtained. The details of the agreement have not yet been made public. They may never be their!
Ay, but if they are as wide as rumour!
them to be, the fact will be welcomed by all who sce in this latest endeavour of Great Britain to set up again a system collective security the only really effective counter to feared aggression. Behind the scenes there has been a silent, determined diplomatic war, in which Britain has sought the adhesion of Turkey to the anti-aggression bloc, while Germany has been doing everything within its power to persuade the Turks to maintain that old neutrality which, even if it did not bring Turkey into the Axis camp, would ut least have prevented it throwing itself into the arms of the democracies. Thus with the addition of the Turkish ports to those already available to the British navy in the Mediterranean, and freedom to make use of the Dardanelles in rendering what-lever aid may be necessary to Rumania under the same sort of pact, Britain has been given facilities for the carrying out of her word in certain eventualities which she has never had before. Not only that, the new Agreement makes the possibility of Britain rendering effective aid to the Balkan states who may require it all the more potent, and gives ground for hoping that the Anglo-Russian negotiations which have not been progressing with the speed which is desirable will ultimately be brought to a successful conclusion, thus rounding out the scheme which the latest events in Europe showed to be an imperative necessity if war is to be averted, or at the very least postponed. It may probably prove to be the case that this understanding with Turkey will favourably influence great Britain's fortunes with the Soviet, which is already on friendly terms! with the former.
With the establishment of a Franco Turkish Pact, which seems to be very likely, the last few steps will have been taken towards rounding out the anti-aggression system, upon completion of which Europe can await the next moves of the dictator states with rather more equanimity than in the past. There have been those who have professed to see during the last week some slight improvement in the European situa~ tion. If there has been any at all, and it is very doubtful if there has, it is of the slightest, and has undoubtedly been offset by the occurrences towards the end of the week in Poland and more particularly in Danzig. The fostering of disorders in that city is following the usual technique adopted when ators contemplate a coup, and the opinion expressed that in the comparatively near future Danzig will decide by proclamation upon incorporation into the Reich, and leave it up to Poland to decide whether that shall bbe resisted by force of arms. The scheme is. not a new one. The first move would be allowed to come from Danzig, leaving it to Warsaw to decide whether it would proceed. with the suppression of what would amount to a rebellion, in which event it is to be pected that the Reich would go to the rebels' aid with military forces. Should that occur then there seems to be nothing which can avert the outbreak of general hostilities. The decision as to how she will regard any attempt to include Danzig in the Reich has been left wholly to Poland. Under the guarantees which she has received, she, and she alone will be the judge as to whether her national integrity is being breached, and whether she desires to resist. If she chooses the affirmative she can expect the powerful assistance of Great Britain and France and of those other countries which have already joined the anti-aggression agreement. If to that is added in the near future the extensive resources of Soviet Russia the outcome of the struggle which must inevitably follow need give the democracies no great cause for alarm, though the carnage which will resalt must inspire the gravest anxiety.
If the situation could be left as simply defined as that the future would not be very difficult of assessment. But the position of Italy has to be considered. Until the terms: of the German-Italian Military Alliance are known there must be some speculation as to what would be the attitude of Rome to another German venture at Jand grabbing. It has been suggested that one of the prices paid by Germany for Italian adherence to the formal recognition of a state of affairs. which has long been realized to exist, was the undertaking that Germany would not go to war over Danzig. Such a development would be highly unpopular with the Italian. Government, which fully realizes that "it would be dragged into war merely for the purpose of adding to German gains, which all along have far outweighed anything which aly has secured by reason of its faithful support of Berlin. "Italian public opinion will not be misled by the reports of rioting which emanate from Danzig. Germans are admitted 10 be in the majority in that city and the tales of the majority rioting against a very small minority are not likely to carry quite the same conviction as the exaggerated stories of the persecution of the German minorities in Czechoslovakia which are claimed as the real reason for the dismemberment of that unfortunate country. At the same time the dictatorships are unable to royale their peoples with panem et circenses is not easy with depicted treasuries, and the only possible substitute must be diploma-tie successes or victories of aggrandisement. Itis consequently necessary when endeavouring to make any estimate of the situation 10 consider the internal condition of Germany and the possibility that Herr Hitler's domestic policy requires the creation of a new major: incident to divert the people from their own affairs. The real issue at the present time is not merely Danzig; it involves consideration of a large number of imponderables each of which may play an important. part in whatever decisions Herr Hitler may. have to make, but if as a result of them Moly finds itself dragged into a war to assist Germany in pulling the chestnuts out of the fire no one need greatly be surprised, for wagons hitched to meteors are generally pulled by very erratic steeds.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.