That the Government's proposals fall short of 4 military alliance to Soviet schemes is the explanation given by Mr. R.A. Butler, Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs, and is because of this falling short of that clement of reciprocity upon which the Krem-Tin seems to be so insistent that negotiations have been deadlocked for some few days. Out of the welter of speculation as to exactly where the points of view of the two governments differ so radically one fact emerges with considerable clarity. It is that Great Britain appears to be reluctant to join with Russia in guaranteeing the integrity of the Balkan States. The matter, of course, is a small one in the view of the British Govern ment, while Moscow undoubtedly believes that the threat which East Prussia holds out against Lithuania, Latvia and Esthonia is something upon which she should receive Just the same guarantees as are required from Russia with regard to Poland and Roumania and ultimately Turkey.
Consequently the next few days will decide not only the success of the present deadlocked negotiations but also, quite possibly, the political future of Mr. Neville Chamberlain The reluctance which he, and some other members of the Cabinet still have to a completely reciprocal military alliance with Ros sia is not shared by very important sections not only of his own Cabinet but of the House fof Commons, and it is likely that should he fait in adding the missing cornerstone to the structure of collective security which he has built up in the course of the last few weeks, opinion in Parliament and out of it might force him to resign. It need not necessarily follow, unless he so advises the King, that a [general election would ensue, for it is quite possible, taking all factors into considera {ion, that some other member of the present (Cabinet, more willing to complete an alliance with Russia, would be able to command Sufficient support not only from the Con-Secvative party but, in this connection, possibly from the Liberal and Labour opposition, to control the House, and bring' into being that instrument without which the democratic answer to dictatorial threats can never be complete. One of the chief factors Which seems to have been operating in. Chamberlain's mind is that with the alignment of Great Britain, France, Poland, Roumania and. Turkey a sufficiently strong coalition has been effected to render the possibility of war more uncertain than it has been up to the immediate past, But those who are inclined to think differently from him look towards the enormous man-power which Russia possesses and the huge resources which in the event of a thoroughgoing military alliance could be placed at the disposal of the anti-aggression combination, Thus while at the moment France and Great Britain with the seasoned troops. the secondary powers could put into the field nearly 15 rullion men os against the Ballan and German combination of 8,500,000, the addition of the Russian forces. would unite on the side of the democracies fewer than 33 million men either under arms or in reserve, certainly the greatest potential array ever available for warfare in the history of the world. If this is true of the land forces it is equally correct of the combined resources of the anti-aggression system at sea and in the air. It will be seen from the foregoing that Russian assistance does not seem to be from a numerical point of view imperatively essential. But in the present state of the world, where he who is not for 1 party is definitely against it, the inclusion fof such a Power as Russia inthe alignment fof the democracies is vastly more important the latter than for Russia to maintain a neutrality which might render available for the two dictator states those resources which could and should be reserved for those who might possibly have to fight them. This view has been consistently held by the French Government and has, as already has been pointed out, very considerable support in Great Britain. It is believed and Gevoully hoped that at the next ordinary Cabinet meeting to be held on Wednesday it will be possible to announce that a complete understanding has been reached with Russia, for not only will it give to the smaller coune tries in the Balkans a greater feeling of security than they at present possess, but it will have brought together such enormous Torees that the possibility of war should be driven far into the background. Failure to reach an understanding, however, need not necessarily increase the certainty of war, hough the fullest access of strength by the democracies is the best insurance against it.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.