The capture of Hankow, a probability which in Japanese military plans is regarded as a foregone conclusion, represents the end of the fourth phase of the Japanese campaign in China. True, many predictions have gone astray in a conflict which has produced astonishing contradictions of preconceived ideas, and many anticipations have suffered in the process of timely fulfilment, but the ultimate possession of Hankow and its two sister cities, Hanyang and Wuchang, is a matter of little doubt. Even General Chiang Kai-shek himself has no illusions on this score and has prepared his army and his "copie to be prepared for the worst, although the surrender of these three important cities n the heart of China will follow only after he bitterest resistance as the course of the conflict in recent weeks has shown. The Wuhan group may be a valuable prize for the Japanese, but it will be costly because he full resources of China's armed resistance iwo in play against the invader. In their advance up the Yangtze into Central China vith a greatly-reinforced army, the Japanese, to quote their own communiques, are making steady progress" for every inch of territory s being contested with proportionate effort and sacrifices on both sides. The thrust into Honan has brought them to Loshan, a few miles from Sinyang, the city on the Peiping-Hankow Railway about 100 miles north of Hankow, but those few miles to Sinyang are strongly held and Gen. Chiang has concen-rated heavy reinforcements, with mechanized units and artillery, to stem their advance. Little progress has been made along the river and on the immediate north bank since the forcing of the latest boom and the advance nto East Hupeh which places the Japanese n control of what they prefer to call the nest direct route to Hankow. South of the Yangtze, operations of the last week or two ire clouded by an obscurity which suggests hat the tremendous momentum gathered in he push down the Kiukiang-Nanchang Railway towards Tehan has been dissipated, and probably the nature of the terrain is responsible for this inactivity and, consequently, lack of reports. A new point of pressure, however, is developing farther to the west in the vicinity of Yangsin where the Japanese are attacking vigorously.
These are the developments of recent days and it is natural to assume that as the Japanese approach their last objective, which s defended by an army of 600,000 men in difficult territory specially prepared and exploited for defensive purposes, military opposition goes hand-in-hand with caution and the desire to eliminate any uncertainty n, plans of attdtk, and therefore the slow progress, contrasting with the spectacular dashes in the earlier stages of the campaign, is explicable. Once in Hankow, the question of Japan's future intentions arises. In the bombastic and vindictive verbal barrages fired at Gen. Chiang by various of Japan's leaders, it has been stated that the Japanese will pursue their campaign to Chungking or anywhere in China where he chooses to establish his headquarters and will not rest until his power is broken and he is overthrown. These statements, of course, are to be treated with considerable reserve because in the existing state of uncompromising hostility, plus a rapidly-increasing war bill for the Japanese taxpayer, even if Hankow does fall it means merely another advanced post for Japan and heavier commitments in the additional occupied territory. Even less likely than at any time in the conflict are the present prospects for a decisive victory although the extension of Japanese control in China is inevitable. Both sides are feeling the strain. A. Chinese Economic Mission in Washington is discussing measures to protect the dollar in the expectation of protracted hostilities. Japan, which has already dug heavily into its reserves, is faced with an extraordinary military expenditure of Y.3,250,000,000 for the next fiscal year with a considerably lower trading revenue to provide it. And both countries are adamant in their asseverations that they will continue to the bitter end.
Straws in the wind are not lacking to indicate other possibilities. It appears evident that for many reasons the Japanese are disinclined to move farther than Hankow, and this -tloes not depreciate any assessment of China's ability to resist. With a large part of China in her control the problems of occupation are almost as great as those of military conquest. Only in a fragmentary sense can it be said that the Japanese are able fully to control the area in their nominal possession. Suppression of guerilla activities, which are likely to increase as a result of the extension of her already long and tenuous line, have set the Japanese a task of formidable proportions. In Central China, the situation has been relatively peaceful in comparison with North China where large forces from Japan have been landed to deal. with this aspect of only partial conquest of territory where Japanese garrisons have been stationed for years. There are other problems of urgent need which strengthen the belief that Hankow will-be the end of the fourth phase and perhaps the last phase, militarily. The amalgamation last week of the Reformed and the Provisional Governments to provide the administrative machinery for this vast area is a prójection of Japanese plans dependent on the capture of Hankow, and linked with schemes for economic and industrial development, which spell ill for the future of the "third party interests" so often quoted in official pronouncements, constitutes a clear indication of the course of Japanese efforts after the new objective has been attained.
Judged by the spirit of the times, these Sino-Japanese ventures have not been happy, but there is no reason to suppose they will not succeed so long as a firm hand is exercised on these projects for the end would justify the means. Developments in the European situation and the implications of the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo axis might drastically change conditions as far as the Far East and the hostilities in China are concerned, but an analysis of present conditions leads to the conclusion that Japan must consolidate her position and do it quickly. Hankow, therefore, assumes an equal importance, politically and economically, as it does militarily.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.