July 13, To the reverse sustained by President Roosevelt, when the Administration's Neutrality Bill was amended by the House of Representatives, has now to be added the further defeat in the Senate Foreign Rela~ tions Committee which has decided by 12 votes to 11 to postpone until next, session consideration of the Administration's substitute for the Neutrality Bill. The substitute would, if adopted, secure the repeal of the embargo on the export of arms to belligerents, and replace it with a provision permitting the sale of arms on the "cash and carry" basis which, while being perfectly neutral, would in its application have favoured the' democracies in the event of war. The action of the Foreign Relations Committee need not necessarily be final, for! the issue can still be transferred to the floor of the Senate by the adoption by that body of a motion to discharge the Committee from consideration of neutrality legislation. That would in fact bring - the whole issue before the Senate, and it is believed that the Administration' commands sufficient votes not only to pass such a motion but also to enact such legislation as it is desirous of seeing passed. How far the Foreign Relations Commitice were dominated by really serious considerations of policy, and how far its action was motivated by 'a desire to thwart the Administration docs not appear clearly in the telegrams to hand, but it is significant to note that two of the Democrats. who apparently were in the saddle, voted against the Administration, and as they happened to be two men whom President Roosevelt opposed in the last elections, because of their criticism of his domestic policy, there is the chance that they seized upon this opportunity of retaliating in the most effective manner possible. There were it is true three other Democrats who voted against the Administration, and it is apparent that if the voting had gone on purely party ines the result would have been vastly different from what it is, and the fact that President Roosevelt has not complete control of his party is one of the weaknesses of what would otherwise be a very strong Position.
The statement made by Mr. Cordell Hull, Secretary of State, shortly after the Committee's vote had been taken, to the effect that in the interests of peace and security the Administration would continue to urge the adoption of its neutrality programme, suggests that steps may be taken to force the neutrality legislation out of the Foreign Relations Committee on to the floor of the Senate, where, despite flibustering, the opposition would not be able to command more that 35 to 40 votes, in which event the Government would be assured of victory. There is something to be suid for the comment in the "Washington Post" that the minority in the Senate, holding a temporary advantage in the committee, should shut off discussion on neutrality is @ negation of the American form of Government, for obvious~ ly the rights of the majority are being over Fidden, and President Roosevelt may still find it desirable to trust his legislation to. the full Senate rather than to a committee which is manifestly hostile to his proposals. That is, however, easier said than done. That it can be done is clear, but it is to be doubted whether the use of the big stick by the Administration at such a juncture as this would not create even more hostility than at the moment exists, It would indeed be a drastic step to take, and if President Roosevelt decides on a policy of suaviter in mode in lieu of the more determined line, it will not in view of all the facts be at all surprising. From every point of view it is desirable that the neutrality question shall bbe settled once and for all, more especially as the present uncertainty must have a very profound effect upon the foreign policy of the Administration, and consequently con= tribute to the present insecurity in Europe. The suggestion that in the event of war the source of supply which the United States represents to the democracies for war material and the like could be completely shut off may not weaken the position of the latter very seriously, though it is certainly not strengthened.
It has to be admitted that if the Neutrality Bill as it passed the House of Representa~ tives eventually became law it would be 'a severe blow to the democratic cause in the world. The United States standing so completely aloof in the event of an ideological war such as is at the moment feared, would be most unfortunate. Not that it is desired that they should actively intervene in such a struggle, but this legislative washing of hands would amount to a negation of all that the United States stand for. Yet, though it would be a severe blow, it would not be an irreparable one. The European democracies would be thrown more upon their own resources, and though these have not yet been fully developed to their peak, the room for expansion is such as to give every justification for believing that they would even without this assistance, for which they would have to pay, be able to carry on rather more better than would their opponents. It is, therefore in the psychological aspect of the matter that there is most danger, and in this respect the reverse which the President has sustained represents a distinct encouragement of those Who see in war the possibility of the Sulfilment of their policies. There is reason to believe that in the face of actual warfare the attitude of Congress would be greatly different from what it appears to be at the present moment, and there is comfort to be found in the fact that in whatever has been done up to the present there is no quality of finality. It is not to be believed that in the ultimate resort the United States would Femain careless of the fate of the European democracies and the possible overwhelming of ideals which are strongly adhered to by the citizens of the United States, and if the resent Incidents in Congress" are taken more as a rebellion against the Administration than a demonstration of a considered foreign policy, it is more than likely that that view of the situation closely approximates the realities of, the. situation,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.