'S we turn another year and 1939 breaks in, it is opportune to perceive what is ahead in the development of, Shanghai's visible and most valuable assd The prospects of this city's real estate are bound up in the resolution of political and economic forces at play in this spot of the world. These forces may be analyzed into plus and minus quantities, may be gauged, the whole computed to show a resul~ tant and to give the direction of such resultant, Let us look at some of the pro~ nounced ly-negative elements in the political field, first, Putting it bluntly, the Japanese High Command, "theoretically speaking, may think' Git, for one reason oF another, take over, forcibly. the Settlement. ud Concession, and proceed to con-Aiseate private property. This would be about the worst that could be envisaged for Shanghai real estate, Then there is the possibility—however remote It may seem to some "of the Chinese not being vanquish-fed, and Communist elements arising. to defeat the Japanese and swallow Shanghai, Such a dispensation of ings, a8 is connoted by the word.
communist," may prove even worse for real-estate than the first-mentioned contingency. namthere ie another potent Major warfare in, the western
Geman for real-estate here. Phe tse atta wentfent or tne increase of dominant position, or the Strolutiom! in the world rust wore Yet one more Important quant inthe equation, springing directly fromthe ground of polities, 1s the fiministation of Justice, and laws Pertaining to the tenure of Tand and Peal property, Those, throughout alter "years, have mostly been "on the adverse aide for owners of real address ourselves to evaluating them, jin the order of their presentation.
Adverting to. the possibility of Japanese seizure of. these Settlements, we must ask ourselves when ther any-real need for such action obtains. 'The Japanese conquest of all coastal and river ports is a fait accompli. Their capability of forjeibly occupying and taking over the administration of both municipalities snot doubled. But what is' to be gained by such an act weighed against serious complications with the Powers Involved?
"The Japanese are in need of {facilities and privileges in trade and Industry, together with economic ald. Right now, they are in possession of Jsuch advantages except for adequate economic support from the Chinese and foreigners. To swoop down and take away the foreign administra-{tions would only further estrange the latter from desired ce-operation.
What of the likelihood, it may be asked, of using Shanghai as a hostage In Japanese retaliatory measures towards the British, "American and French for the three latter's economic polloies, as is thought to be so. in some quarters? This. sort of thing would not have the effect of the Powers desisting from their present fictive sympathy for China; rather would it lead to more Impetus in the same direction, No Tremendous Factor Now, for the economic minus, may have the following:—State monopolies tothe point of strand Tian? generat busines. "The creation Ola ral exteeseenent Shan fand its after-effects. mad its a "violent distur-sion from long. year of wat
Banco from currency troubles reversal In the policy of lenders money. on. real estate whereby, in-ead' of supporting the market as Initherto, they. throw properties on to] the aietlon-block for Iiquidation. The imposition of tegal handicaps on. rental Fates, and the unfair application of this' principle. Lack of zon-Ing regulations by municipal author!- ties. Overcrowding and its "consequences in disease and destruction, inthe long-run making an even heavier toll than war.
At the positive end, there are the undernoted. political considerations:—The maintenance of pro-war, Shang: hat with changes only in the heretofore Chinese-controlled. extra-Set~ tlement areas. The continued disturbance outside Shanghai in contradistinetion to the prevalence of quiet and safety under existing Thunleipal controls of the British, American, "French and Japanese, Further from home, we have the building-up of the ' great defence system of the democratic Power Which must make its favourable influence felt here, The political forces of China Russia "are ranged against that the. Tokyo-Rome-Berlin axis. The multiplex political entitles of Shang-hal, one counterbalancing the other, Yend towards a state of equilibrium Finally, there has ever been toler tion here towards race and creed. which permits of unhampered growth of various diverse communities, each contributing its quota of usefulness to the whole,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.