In the opinion of some well-informed quarters the war, especially in connection with Germany's adventure into Scandinavia, is likely to reach an important and maybe decisive stage during the course of this week. Probably so far as Norway is concerned that stage has already' been reached with a costly naval defeat of Germany at the hands of the Allies, the laying of an immense mine-field designed to cut Germany off from her troops in Norway, and the daring, British incursion into the Baltic for the pufose of laying mines to obstruct the transport of Swedish iron-ore in those waters. The rape of Denmark made it possible for British submarines to enter the Baltic without breach of international law, and the laying of mine-fields has resulted. 1t is reported that the total number of troops Germany was able to land in Norway amounted to about three divisions or 35,000 men. They were landed at different points, but the indications are that {he main force was sent to Oslo, that the detachments landing at other ports were not excessively large, and that they should present no great. obstacle when the Allies, and the Norwegians set about the task of cleaning them up. That the great force was landed at Oslo seems clear from the fact that it was able to make such headway north to Hamar, Elverum and Kongsvinger, an average distance of fifty-five miles as the crow flies. At these three points the Norwegian have now assembled in force and the latest reports indicate that they are at least holding their own if not repulsing the invaders. Meanwhile the problem of how to maintain the German forces in the field, and to send them reinforcements is the one which Herr Hitler has to solve, and, if he finds difficulty in doing so, it will be because of the determined action which the Allies have taken against the German forces, and the wide scope of their activities which should serve entirely to cut Norway off from Germany. Consequently there is much reason to believe that important decisions will have to be taken by Berlin in the course of this week.
Those decisions will narrowly concern Sweden. With an important force of probably 25,000 men in the Oslo area sooner or later in demand supplies, and reinforcements, it is clear that the much-vaunted transportation by air cannot hope to be adequate. Yet, unless these forces are properly maintained, Herr Hitler runs the risk of suffering a military defeat, not, perhaps, of the first magnitude, but sufficient to add to the general weight of the reverses Germany has already suffered. It is unlikely that Herr Hitler will submit to any such thing, and the probabilities are that he will make further demands upon Sweden for permission to send munitions, heavy war material and other supplies through Swedish territory. If, as it is expected, the Swedish Government adheres to its determination to insist upon its neutrality, and, if necessary, to fight in defence of it, then the Scandinavian campaign will assume eyen greater importance than it has at present, and bring to Herr Hitler the disadvantage which he has always sought to avoid of having to fight on two fronts. Should he persist in the grave error he has already committed he will have completely played into the hands of the Allies, and have demonstrated that the experience gained as a corporal in the last war has stood him in little stead as chief strategist in the present struggle. There is also considerable uneasiness in Holland over the prospects of a possible German invasion, but, nevertheless, the intention to resist to the utmost, and, judging from American reports, the possibility that Signor Mussolini may in the near future abandon neutrality and come into the struggle on the German side cannot be ignored. It is stated that Italian naval dispositions in the Mediterranean, and the reported intention of Il Duce to call up one-and-a-quarter million reservists are to be taken as indication of coming Italian participation in this war. This view is supported by the declarations of Signor Ansaldo, director of the "Telegrafo," owned by Count Ciano, clearly indicating the early possibility of Italy entering the struggle, an occasion "which a month ago might have been very remote, may now be nearer than you think."
However much such a step would be regretted by the Allies as definitely putting an end to all endeavours to reach a better understanding with Italy, it is a contingency which the Allies have always reckoned on. They did so when they declared war against Germany on the invasion of Poland, for it was not until some days later that it was learned that Herr Hitler had released Italy from the obligation to go to war immediately in alliance with Germany. It is an even-triality against which the Allies have already made such dispositions of their forces as they consider best designed to meet the menace which such a development would mean. Thus while Italian participation in the war would entail the further spread of hostilities, and the enlargement of the theatre of war, it would have about it no element of surprise whatever, and would only represent an emergency which the Allies have all along expected, and which they have been at all times prepared to meet. With a decisive victory in the north, which does not seem at all improbable, it should not be difficult for the Allies to maintain control in the Mediterranean, for the general effect of all that has been happening in the North Sea, the very patent crippling of the German navy, and the close confinement of the remainder to German home waters, has been that a redisposition of the Allied naval forces should not prove impossible. Thus it should be quite possible for the Allies to maintain their hold in the Mediterranean should unhappily Signor Mussolini decide to act in accordance with his commitments to Herr Hitler, while the presence of imposing Allied military forces in the Near East, together with the Allied -understanding with Turkey are factors which tend to remove any uneasiness which might otherwise be felt concerning the possibilities of the situation. There is every reason for facing the future with complete confidence. Not that the possible enemies should be regarded lightly, for the Italians can be formidable both on land and sea. It is rather in the knowledge of Allies' strength, and determination that the cause for hope is to be found, together with their vast resources in men, money and material all of which have not yet been mobilized to their fullest extent.
The importance of the issues involved in tomorrow's annual meeting of the ratepayers of the International Settlement, justifies this journal in directing the attention of all readers who pay rates to the essential necessity of having as representative an attendance of ratepayers as possible at that function. The struggle for the maintenance of the status quo was only half completed with the results of the municipal elections audit is an imperative necessity that everyone who has a vote shall attend to-morrow's meeting to make sure that the Municipal Council shall be provided with adequate funds for the purpose of carrying on the business of the International Settlement for the present year. It is a regrettable fact that the question of an increase in the rates had to be raised this year, but in this matter the Council have been, in the first case, the victims of the ratepayers' reluctance in past years to face the necessity of an increase, and, in the second, of the collapse in exchange which has brought about the present unfortunate situation. Obviously, it would be the height of absurdity to elect a new Council, and then deny it the funds with which to carry on, but that is what will occur if those who object to the increase of rates succeed in carrying their point. The charges of extravagance "which have been levelled against the Municipal Council have been shown to be completely unjustified. If the contrary were the case, it would, even then, not be the wise thing to reject the proposed budget at the present juncture, especially when it has been cut to a minimum of expenditure. With regard to the pensions it must be remembered that these were commitments entered into in all good faith when exchange was decidedly more favourable than it is now, and to seek unilaterally to alter them would be to demonstrate a degree of bad faith which can only be found in the political behaviour of certain nations now under such bitter criticism. The fate of the International Settlement demands that there shall be a fully representative meeting tomorrow and that the proposed Budget shall be passed.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.