April 15, Mr. Matsuoka, the Japanese Foreign Minister, now on his way back to his own country after his European tour brings with him a Russo-Japanese neutrality pact the exact importance of which it is not easy to appreciate at the moment. It does not appear to follow the lines of: the non-aggression pacts which have been signed so frequently in late years, and broken just as lightly. 'The 'Russo-Japanese' understanding merely pro~ vides that the parties shall remain neutral it one or other of them is attacked by a third Power or Powers, while recognition of the mutual situation in Manchoukuo and Outer Mongolia does no more than regularize on Paper a situation already in being. The nar~ rowness of the scope of the new pact, and the absence of any information as to what bargains were made prior to ils signature suggests that M, Stalin made no concessions regarding Soviet aid to the Chinese National Government, and the impression is gained that in that' respect the position, is just. the same now as it was when Mr, Matsuoka left Japan.
Reduced then to the simplest terms, all that the contracting parties have agreed to do is to respect each other's bath door in the event of either of them becoming involved with some other Power or Powers, while the added declaration is obviously designed to prevent further outbreak of border incidents, If M. Stalin has not driven a harder bargain than he appears to have done the fact is of the greatest importance as indicating his out~ Took on the European situation, 'The disposition of German troops in' eastern and south-eastern Europe has for some time been a cause of Russian anxiety, for they menace both the Ukraine and the Caucasus, two very delectable objectives of Hitler covetousness, As this war progresses and the wastage of foodstuffs and fuel proceeds, the wheat fields of the Ukraine and the oilfields of the Caucasus will become all the more desirable, and as Hitler's economic situation worsens, as it is confidently expected it will, the. need to strike out at Russia will become all the more imperative. Any move in those areas Stalin would be bound to. resist. He will have no other choice if he is to maintain the integrity of his Government and his country's territory.
With Russian borders safeguarded in the Far East as they would be by an honourable observance of the commitment entered into between Russia and Japan, M, Stalin would be able to concentrate the whole of the Russian forces on the protection of the western marches. It follows that the much boasted of Anti-Komintern Pact is as dead a door-nail, and in. bringing about its decease the Russian ruler has achieved a Giplomatic victory at the expense of Hitler and Mussolini. Consequently it is to be assumed that M. Stalin's position has been considerably strengthened, for he is able to meet the potential German menace with greater confidence than ever before. But if Russia is the greater gainer in this latest development, Japan does not emerge profit less. She has been relieved of her preoccupa—tions in the north and can consequently pay greater attention to her attempt to liquidate the China Incident and devote more consideration to the furtherance of her policy in the Pacific, 'The question' must naturally arise as to the exact meaning of Prince Konoye's recent statement that Japan would not resort. to force in the development of her policies in the Pacific in the light of this change. Obviously, the Neutrality Pact to a very Jarge degree permits her to do, s. Some observers foresee the possibility of Japan adopting a firmer policy in the Far East as the immediate result, but whether she will Ko to the lengths which would precipitate a war in this part of the world may still be doubted. Prince Konoye himself has declared that there are no issues in the. Pacific incapable of friendly settlement, a sentiment with which there is very considerable agreement. In the light of all the facts ascer= tainable it would be erroneous to describe this new agreement as a diplomatic blow to either Great Britain, or the United States, for in fact it does: little to change the exist= ing situation, and still Leaves the way open for a better understanding between Soviet Russia and those two Powers. Neverthel it has to be admitted that Mr. Matsuoka has served his country well during his mission. He may not have obtained all he wanted, but. the fact that he has secured anything at all will, in the circumstances, redound to his credit, and the realism of M, Stalin,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.