While there are still four days in which one or other of the members of the Balkan Entente—Turkey, Greece, Rumania and Yugoslavia,—ean give notice of its termina~ tion, it is now taken for granted by most well-informed quarters that the fact, that up to now no such notice has been given, means that the understanding will automatically be renewed for a period of another seven years. That in itself is a development which it is hoped will prove a happy augury for the conference which is proceeding at Belgrade, the results of which may have a profound effect not only upon the situation in that part of the world, but also upon the present war. The interplay of political forces in the Balkans has always been great, but never more so than now when the various states are playing roles of very considerable importance, because of the enormous interest the great Powers have in them. Germany wants food and in increasing quantities as something of n offset against the Allied blockade. She would also like to prevent a military bloc of the Balkan states calculated to strengthen their potential resistance, Ttaly has been working for an improvement in the relations between Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Rumania, which would strengthen them with Italian aid against any Russian advance. There is a certain amount of Italian jealousy of Turkey which in turn has considerable interest in Bulgaria, but both Italy and Turkey, anxious to see_a strengthening of the position of.the Balkan States have wisely been endeavouring to persuade Hungary-and Bulgaria respectively to moderate their claims against the Entente nations, the general idea being at least to maintain the status quo until the present war has come to an end. For the time being Russia is unlikely to bring any pressure to bear upon Rumania concerning Bessarabia, having her hands more than full with the Finns, but it is to be expected that sooner or later she will sock the return of that area either by political pressure or military force. King Carol has repeatedly announced his intention of maintaining the present integrity of his kingdom and may be expected to resist any Russian invasion, The grave danger of the situation arises from Germany's great need of the where~ withal to carry on the war which the naval action of the Allies has denied her. Despite the fact that Italy is firmly opposed, and will assist in resisting any Russian encroachment into the Balkans, there is the possibility, that an agreement may in the future be reached between the Reich and the Soviet for a literal carving up of Rumania between them, whereby Germany would secure control of the supply of much needed essentials, together with a port or ports on the Black Sea, and Russia would satisfy its territorial ambitions. It is not to be believed that Herr Hitler would hold his hand because of any understanding which may have hitherto existed between Rome and Berlin. Italy has clearly served Herr Hitler's purpose, and if he has to choose between Rumanian supplies and Italian political support, the desperation of his Position may eventually cause him to throw Italy overboard. To all intents and purposes that was done when the Reich signed the non-aggression Pact with Russia in August last year, for by doing that Herr Hitler clearly showed the Italian, Japanese and German pact against the Komintern to be the shoddy thing it was so long as it had to depend upon Herr Hitler's good faith. It follows that any Russo-German attempt on Rumania would force Italy to make grave decisions concerning the possible disappearance of her important interest in the Balkans and her fear of the further spread of Bolshevism in south-east Europe. The difficulty of the Italian position is that because of jealousy of Turkey's inclusion in any Balkan bloc she is not particularly anxious to seo the Entente strengthened, despite the fact that a strong Entente is the best possible safeguard against the increasing of Russian influence in the Balkans and the consequent danger of the spread of that selfsame political creed to which Signor Mussolint is so completely opposed. The situation is paradoxical, but then, when has it not been in the Balkans? The strengthening of the Entente by the inclusion of Hungary and Bulgaria would represent a considerable accession of Turkish influence which is not wholly suitable to Italian policies.
It is greatly to the interests of Great Britain and France that the Entente shall be strengthened, so as to be able to withstand economic and political pressure from outside, namely, from Germany and Russia. They are not particularly worried over Italian influence in the Balkans, for it has always been there, and while Italy remains so completely opposed to any spread of Bolshevism in this her most important sphere, it may be said that her interests in this connection are identical with those of the Allies. While the particular needs of the various members of the Entente are clean cut and understandable, those of the Greater Powers are not quite so ensily defined, for they coincide in some cases and conflict in the others.
That is a danger which the unstable Balkans have always presented, and it is all the more serious because of the present war. Counsels of wisdom suggest that the Entente States suspending all matters of dispute between them until peace has been restored to Europe, and the future of the whole Continent worked out in an atmosphere more conducive to sound and lasting decisions than would now appear to be the case. The situation will be improved if Hungary and Bulgaria can be persuaded to follow suit with regard to their claims upon Rumania, and, if they can be persuaded to enter into-the bloc, for resistance against all outside pressure, they may yet preserve themselves whole against the designs of either Germany or Russia, of both. A firm bloc of.the Balkan States, backed by Italian power, would be the best safeguard of their future, for it must be apparent that should Germany find an outlet the Black Sea, at the expense of Rumani, the rest of the Balkan States would be doomed if the Reich emerged from this present war victorious, It is equally ap-Parent that the best chance of Germany proving successful in this matter Is for the Balkan States to remain divided, to be picked off piecemeal when it suited Herr Hitler's time. The fact is that a strong Entente, despite Italian-Turkish jealousies, is the best for the Balkans, and for both Ttaly and Turkey, and may save them a lot of trouble in the future.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.