Foreign politics has so filled the foreground of American life during the past few months that one problem which in normal times would be a constant source of speculation has been overshadowed. "That problem is of course next year's Presidential election. Yet even from the point of view of foreign politics the matter is an important one, for much of the present policy of the United States is being carried out by virtue of the powers invested in the Executive arm of the government by the Constitution, and a change in the personality of the man in office might well change the policy which was being' followed. At the same time the reverse is also true, the course of foreign policy may well change the whole outlook for 1940. 4 There are many critics of the President who maintain that the hey to his recent actions in the field of world politics is a desire to serve for a third term, the theory being that in times of crisis the people would prefer him to remain in the White House. If the matter were put less bluntly, and it was said that the President, finding his domestic New Deal hampered and held up at every turn, was naturally more interested at the moment in world politics, then there might be some truth in the criticism. It would also have to be added that the President realized that domestic affairs were all predicated upon a continuance of world peace and that his domestic programme would be damaged by world war. A But this is merely saying that the President has every right to show greater interest in world affairs at the moment than in domestic politics. The question of a third term is not necessarily involved in the President's decisions. "There are many of the Presidents New Deal admirers who would like to see him serve a third term even if Europe were at peace. They may harbour hopes that his activity in the foreign feld will increase the chances of a third term, but the mainspring of their thoughts and actions gives no indication of Mr. Roosevelt's own motives.
The President did, however, give one small indication of his viewpoint in a speech at Mount Vernon, George Washington's home. It did not attract very much attention because that same morning he had made a startling address to the Pan-American Union in which he had denied that the Western Hemisphere (any more than the United States) could isolate itself from the rest of the world. A new frontier had been reached in Pan-American relations, he said effect, in which the problem was how to get along with the rest of the world instead of how to get along with each other. Then the following day he had made his peace appeal to Hitler and Mussolini, asking them to reassure 31 nations that they need have no fear of their independence being threatened or destroyed. Amid these towering international moves it was little wonder that a reference to possible domestic developments should have received scant attention.
Standing on the porch of Mount Vernon the President told a large crowd of tourists and sightseers of George Washington's feelings 150 years before. He described his reluctance to leave his Virginia meadows, washed by the peaceful Potomac river, for the cares of office and the hard duties which the first Chief Executive of the new nation would have'to face. Washington had served eight years as Commander-in-Chief and must have felt he deserved a rest. "But the summons to the Presidency had come te him in a time of real crisis and deep emergency." "Was Mr. Roosevelt, the Squire of Hyde Park, drawing a parallel between himself and the Squire of Mount Vernon? Was he saying that if there was a time of real crisis and emergency he would be prepared to follow George Washington's course? Washington, who had served eight years as a war leader, agreed to serve again as the head of a nation at peace. Would Roosevelt who had served eight years as a peace leader, be called upon to serve as a leader in war? All that can be said is that the Preident has made no flat denial of the possibility he might serve a third term.
In any discussion of the Presidential elections next year, therefore, the first consideration must always be that President Roosevelt himself will be a candidate. If he runs his re-election would seem assured. He would not run unless there was a definite international crisis and in such an atmosphere many people would turn to him as a symbol of American nationalism, they would prefer the known quantity to the unknown.
If the emergency is not great enough for the President to run again almost anything might happen to the Democratic party. Speaking broadly there are two types of candidates considered, the outright New Dealers and the compromise candidates. An outright Conservative such as Governor Byrd of Virginia appears a highly improbable choice. The first name which rises to the mind when the compromise candidates are considered is that of the Vice-President, John Garner. The Presidential faction could hardly oppose the man whom they twice accepted as the New Deal second string, while the Conservative group would accept him gladly for a tradition of good common horse sense has been built up round his ruddy countenance. He is regarded by his colleagues with real affection and his influence over the Senate has been shown time and again.
There is another man who also ranks high on the list of possible compromise candidates and that is the President's senior Cabinet Member, the Secretary of State, Mr. Cordell Hull. Mr. Hull is the only Cabinet member who has grown steadily in stature during the seven years he has been in the Cabinet in charge of the country's foreign office. His honesty and straightforwardness have impressed the general public, who have at times felt distrustful of the motives and methods of the more active New Dealers.
Mr. Hull has never been accused of "slickness," or of being an intriguer, or of con-coaling the real motives behind any of his moves. He has stuck doggedly to his one pet project, trade improvement, and has had little say in domestic matters. He would, therefore, be accepted by the conservative Democrats. As far as foreign policy went his election would mean the least break with present plans, though in domestic affairs he would undoubtedly lay far less effort upon planning and governmental supervision than the New Dealers would like.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.