The commencement of diplomatic conversations of an informal character between the United States and neutral governments, together with the announcement that Mr. Sumner Welles, Under-Secretary of State, is to make a tour of Europe as the personal representative of President Roosevelt for the purpose of securing first-hand information regarding the European situation, is one of the major surprises of the war. The two facts are not at present to be taken as forming parts of a general scheme leading to mediation, for it is made quite clear that what President Roosevelt is concerned with is the state of the world when peace is again established, and the widespread adjustments which will be necessary if stable conditions are to be secured calculated to make a lasting and advantageous peace for all. In connection with the tour of Mr. Sumner Welles the general impression is formed that both Mr. Roosevelt and Mr. Cordell Hull desire a detailed, comprehensive report from a man approaching the matter with a fresh mind, rather than to have different reports from the various representatives in the countries which Mr, Welles is to visit, each one of whom approaches the subject from his own personal point of view. The considered judgment of one man having made all the necessary enquiries should be more valuable than any attempt at collating the opinions of a number of men. It may very well be that at some time in the future President Roosevelt, or his successor, if the war lasts as long as it is anticipated, will have to play a very important part in endeavouring to solve the problems which have led up to the present war, and which, if they are not ptoperly solved, may only mean that they will remain the causes for another possible outbreak. It is to be hoped, that President Roosevelt is not contemplating another conference such as that responsible for the Treaty of Versailles. The mistakes of the past suggest the necessity of statesmen approaching the problems of peace with minds untrammelled by the precedents of the past.
The report that Mr. Welles is to make this tour has been received warmly in Great Britain, and will probably be regarded in the same light by France. He will undoubtedly receive all the information he desires, for it is obvious that if the United States Government is ultimately to make any really valuable contribution to the establishment of a permanent peace it will have to be fully apprised of the opinions held by the governments of all the warring nations. The war aims of the Allies are already sufficiently widely known, and it is because Washington fully understands that there can be no peace until those aims have been attained that it has been clearly made known that the present move does not amount to a peace drive, but rather an exploratory manceuvre to discover how it can be made possible. Mention has already been made of the fact that a settlement which is just to Germany, and to the Allies, is a prime essential. That in itself will present certain obstacles which will only disappear by the total elimination of the present government of the Reich and the substitution therefor of a Government in which the nations of the world can place their confidence. There can in fact be no peace without it, for it would only amount to an armed truce until such time as Herr Hitler decided the opportunity ripe for another attempt to further his grandiose schemes. The attainment of the Allies' immediate war aims, however, while a' prerequisite does not mean the removal of all those evils which have brought about the present deplorable situation. The enormous problem of making the necessary trade and financial adjustments without which it will be impossible to secure a lasting peace is one in which all the nations of the world will have to assist in solving, for autarchical schemes and the continuance of policies of narrow nationalism cannot but be conducive of hostility and so prevent the general reduction of armaments which the American Government apparently has in view.
The view held in some quarters that this surprising action on the part of President Roosevelt is for the purpose of exploring peace possibilities before hostilities enter the "total" stage with the advent of Spring is interesting but without very much at the present to support it. The likelihood of a cessation of hostilities before the Spring depends entirely upon whether the Allies or the Reich can be induced to withdraw from decisions which have already been arrived at. The former are not to be expected to lay down their arms until they have either achieved the righting of those wrongs which brought them into the war, or have been defeated. The probability of either of these things occurring in the short space of time which is left is not very great, and it is consequently unlikely that President Roosevelt will embark on any mediation scheme at the present for fear that it would prove unsuccessful. The conclusion appears unavoidable that this war will have to continue until Germany is beaten. That is the determination of the Allies who realize that their very existence depends upon victory. It is only by their success that a just peace can be secured, for the world has only to remember the peaces inflicted upon nations which Germany beat in the: last war, and to recall what is being done to nations which have already fallen before German aggression in this struggle to realize the type of peace which Germany would dictate for Europe were she ever permitted to be in a position to do so. There is consequently little chance that mediation which did not result in the destruction of the German menace would have any particular appeal to the Allied governments. At the same time it is gratifying to note that the United States has taken the initiative in investigating what will have to be done after hostilities cease to repair the great damage which is being done to the world's economy. Preparation now to meet the difficulties which must then arise seems to be a wise and statesmanlike move. It may not help to bring the end of the war nearer, though it may help to bring about wiser settlements than marked the efforts at Versailles two decades ago.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.