March 6.
Boiled down to the one essential fact the underlying cause for Hitler's present activi~ ties in. the Balkans and Turkey is the great and growing need for oil with which to carry on his fight with Britain. Indeed this pre~ sent phase of the war chiefly concerns that commodity, for the long range planning behind Germany's military and diplomatic manoeuvres may be foreed upon her by the coming need of her industrial, and war machines for the material which turns the wheels of modern nations and armies, name~ ly, all. Without a doubt the overrunning of the greater portion of Europe resulted in Germany acquiring substantial additions to the fuel reserves she had been building up preparation for the war. But British alr-raids have destroyed considerable portions of those reserves, while the fuel found in the occupied countries has by now been lof a close sea blockade Germany has been" deprived of all supplies save those from Rumania, and possibly some from Russia, though if that country is supplying any at all it must be in minute quantities:
If Germany receives all that is produced: in Rumania, namely about 60,000,000 barrels a year, that is by no means sufficient to maintain her forces and her war industries, Ict alone those still devoted to the production: of the meagre exports of which Germany is still capable. Italy has also to be supplied with oil, and while Germany' is able to produce a certain amount of synthetic fuel from. coal, even that is insufficient to fill the huge gap'in her fuel imports which the blockade has made, Some estimate of the huge quantities of all which are required in modern warfare may be made from the fact that, according to experts, 200,000 gallons of petrol are necessary to move a division a distance of 150 miles. It is apparent, therefore, that the movements into Rumania anil now' into Bulgaria must alone have re~ sulted in the using up of millions of gallons of fuel, all of which have to come out Germany's dwindling supplies, The balt which Is tempting Hitler in his steadily growing dimiculties is in the first ease the oilfields in Iraq and Iran, capable fof producing no less than 90,000,000 barrels per annum, while just across the Turkish border in the Caucasus there are the Russian oilfields capable of producing another 170,- (000,000. When it is seen that there are some~ where in the neighbourhood of 260,000,000 barrels of all to be had for: the taking, if he can take them, it is quite understandable why Hitler should for the time being concentrate ripon diplomatic moves in' the Balkans and the Middle East for the purpose of getting as close as possible in order to make a grab at them. There appears be three routes to these oilfields which Hitler has in mind. "The first is by sea to Asia Minor through Salonika, not avall~ able so long as Britain' controls the eastern." Mediterranean, the second" is across. the,, Dardanelles and through Turkey, which Hitler is now seeking to secure by diplomatic pressure at Ankara, and the third is via the Ukraine, round' the north coast of the Black Sea to the Caucasus. Improbable though this route may seem, It has been clear ever since Germany massed troops on the Rumanian-Russian border, in numbers far in excess of those necessary to maintain peace and order in that area, that the possibility of Hitler striking through the Ukraine has had always to.be reckoned with:
Hitler is at present, secking to induce. Turkey to abandon her present commitments to Great Britain, but her present position is one in which she is also committed to Russia, and it Turkey were to give way to Hitler and give his troops passage to Iraq and Tran—always supposing the Britisti could not stop them;—she would also' enable hish to get so close to the Russian border between the Black and the Caspian Seas that sudden jump upon the Russian oilfields might become a comparatively easy matter, It will be seen, therefore, that Turkey' is in). the strong. position of having both British": and Soviet support for very obvious reasons, and should be able successfully to withstand either Hitler's persuasion or threats, while he is in an increasingly dangerous position which he is seeking to remedy at all costs.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.