A feature of the 1936 Derby was the running of Mrs. Shand's Thankerton, which entered the straight with such a definite advantage over the rest of the field, that the B.B.C. commentator, in his enthusiasm, declared that the horse had such a lead that it could not possibly be beaten. A few seconds later he had to declare that he was mistaken, that Mahmoud had won the race, and that Thankerton was only third. The incident is mentioned because of the fact that there is a growing tendency on the part of some countries, not only in Europe, but in Asia as well, to believe that the European war is all but over and that the Axis is bound to win. That is not the belief of the Allies, but there are undoubtedly several neutrals who are tending to base their policies on the assumption that, like Thankerton, the Axis is entering the straight with such a lead that success is inevitable. It is a rash assumption. Germany from the outset has endeavoured to set the pace, and it has to be admitted has done so remarkably well up to the present, but it is not the initial spurt which will decide the struggle. There are plenty of horses who can set the pace, but it is only those who can stay the course who can possibly hope to win, and what Germany has to show the world is that she can stay the course. There are very solid grounds for believing that she cannot, for accepting the view that Herr Hitler knows it himself. It is for that reason that he is forcing the pace in the way he is, hoping to secure victory before the rapid attrition of his foodstuffs and stores of war material bring his enormous military machine to a halt. Opposed to him is an Empire composed of people who are determined to stay the course, to make up whatever has been lost because of the enemy's initial speed and to secure victory. There are important factors even now operating in their favour, factors which will grow more and more menacing to the enemy.
There is the continually growing British air force, which has already replaced all casualties and is now stronger than when the war commenced. There are on British soil approximately two million men in arms to meet the threatened invasion of the enemy. There is that determination to endure in order to win, and finally there is the British Navy, itself able to maintain that stranglehold upon the economic life of the enemy nations in a manner which must ultimately force them to surrender. And behind all this there are the vast resources of the British Empire, and the rest of the world, which will continue to be tapped by means of the mercantile marine against which the U-boat campaign has proved a failure. The German food situation is authoritatively stated in London to be comparable to that in March, 1918. The survey of position in Germany and the German-occupied countries, shows that the former is already in a sad plight, that Poland, invaded during the sowing season cannot produce her normal harvest. In the Danube prospects are poor. The supplies from Russia are by no means up to German expectations. Lithuania, Latvia and Esthonia are being obliged to feed Russian garrisons instead of exporting to Germany. The Italian standard of living, which has been falling for the past decade is now even below that of Germany. The overrunning of France brings no grist to the German mitt, for at the best she is barely self-supporting, while this war has seen the ravaging of her corn fields. Finally it is reckoned that the whole European winter grain yield will be reduced from 25 to 50 per cent. owing to interrupted sowing, hard winter, spring floods, diversion of manpower, military destruction, shortage of horses, fertilizers and oil for machinery. At the same time it must be remembered that the Allied air forces have been delive: ing heavy blows against military objectives in Germany, and is capable, and will become increasingly so, of returning in kind ever; thing that Germany can hope to do to Britain.
Then it has to be remembered that behind Great Britain stands the United States supporting the Allied cause as far as it can short of war. The manner in which the resources of that country have been placed at the disposal of the Allies, the material which has already been supplied and which is to be forthcoming in the future all add to the promise of ultimate victory for the Allied cause. In all these facts is to be found the answer to the question of whether Germany can stay the course. They most definitely suggest that she cannot. Hence Herr Hitler's Blitzkrieg in an endeavour to bring about the complete downfall of the Allies before the unavoidable pressure of the Allied blockade reduces the enemy nations to such a state that they will no longer be able to carry on. Consequently those nations whose hands are already itching to partake of the spoils of the defeat of the Allies which they apparently expect would do well to bide a while. They may by precipitate action at this juncture transfer what is at present a European war into one involving the whole world. It may be thought by some that the London statement quoted above is the result of wishful thinking, but a moment's reflection of what war does to the agriculture of invaded nations, and what blockade does to those which have avoided that catastrophe must inevitably demonstrate the correctness of the conclusions which have been arrived at. The German and Italian nations are involved in coils which will take a great deal to break. They cannot hope to do so as long as the Allies, or Great Britain alone, retain command of the seas. That has not been wrested from them and it is highly improbable that it ever will be. In the circumstances to assume that an Axis victory is certain, is to adopt the same attitude as the B.B.C. commentator at the 1936 Derby. He was probably very embarrassed over his mistake, but nations who make the same error in connection with this war may be even more so. In 1914-1918 the Allies stayed the course for four years during which Germany set the pace, but it was going down the straight of the subsequent three months when the Allies outstripped and defeated their enemy. History has been known to repeat itself, and there is not only no reason why it should not on this occasion, but strong probability that it will.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.