It was about 9.30 a.m. on this day four years ago that fighting between the entrenched Chinese in Chapei and the Japanese brei out. The results of the Lukouchiao incident which had occurred on July 7, 1937, had spread to Shanghai. This city was destined to pass through the most trying period of its history. That it came out of the ordeal so well as i did is due as much to the quality of its inhabitants as to the. advantages of the situation it occupies. It is not, however, so much with local questions that it is necessary to be concerned, but rather to take advantage of this landmark in the Sino-Japanese struggle to endeavour to estimate the results of the extension of hostilities in northern China to this part of the world and ultimately down the entire coast of China. At very great cost the Japanese were able after several months of fighting to force their way \up the Yangtze to and beyond Hankow. Chiang Kei-shek was gradually forced back into Szechuen.
In not very rapid succession the various Chinese ports through which the National Government could receive supplies were closed by the Japanese, and now at the end of four years about as complete a blockade as possible has been instituted by the Japanese. Chungking is forced to rely for supplies on two land routes, one from Russia, and the other the famous Burma Road. But the Chinese have not been beaten. Their country has only been occupied in several districts, and it may safely be said that the greater part of China, even in those areas which are claimed to "be occupied, the flat of the National Government still runs to within rifle shot of the various Japanese outposts. There is effective Japanese occupation of the ports, and certain inland cities, but the conclusion cannot be avoided that the extent of the success is in no way commensurate with the great outlay in life and treasure which this adventure in China has without a doubt cost them.
Reports of conditions in that Japan show that its economy has been placed under an enormous strain, that the people are suffering hardships which are scarcely to be expected of a nation which claims to have waged a successful war with the Chinese. The estimated cost in money of the "China Incident" ranges from Yen 20,000,000,000 upwards, and Japan has comparatively little to show for it. That is the simple truth of the matter. What was expected to be a short sharp struggle, yielding Japan rich returns in, the north, has through the determination of the Chinese developed into a struggle the end of which is not in sight, and so far as the National Government is concerned will not be in sight until China is freed of the invading hordes. These hostilities have had the effect of crystallizing Chinese patriotism in a way which has never before been seen, and there is arising a new China which will see that its destinies shall never be denied it by the actions ofan alien race.
Surely there is a lesson in this which Japan would do well to bear in mind when confronting developments vis-à-vis of Great Britain and the United States. In China the Japanese started something which they are very apparently unable to finish. Here they were opposed by a nation relatively unequipped as compared wit the Japanese army. In Great Britain and the United States they will find, should they be so ill-advised as to force the issue to the arbitrament of arms, two nations richer in resources than Japan is, just as well, if not better equipped, and quite ready and willing to meet all demands in the nature of force which may be made of them. What is more Japan will find them just as determined in the defence of their interests as the Chinese have been in the defence of their national integrity. In all this there is no bluff. If there are people in Tokyo who believe contrarily they are due for a sad awakening should they get them-Selves into a position whence there can be no withdrawal and the best advice to the Japanese at this juncture is to refrain from
chew. atemptar to bite off more than they can
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.