Boiled down to the one essential fact the underlying cause for Hitler's present activities in the Balkans and Turkey is the great and growing need for oil with which to carry on his fight with Britain. Indeed this present phase of the war chiefly concerns that commodity, for the long range planning behind Germany's military and diplomatic manoeuvres may be forced upon her by the coming need of her industrial, and war machines for the material which turns the 1 wheels of modern nations and armies, name~ ly, oil. Without a doubt the overrunning of the greater portion of Europe resulted in Germany acquiring substantial additions to the fuel reserves she had been building up 1 in preparation for the war. But British air-raids have destroyed considerable portions of those reserves, while the fuel found in the occupied countries has by now been practically exhausted. With the maintenance of a close sea blockade Germany has been 4 deprived of all supplies save those from 1 Rumania, and possibly some from Russia, though if that country is supplying any at a all it must be in minute quantities.
If Germany receives all that is produced in Rumania, namely about 60,000,000 barrels a year, that is by no means sufficient to maintain her forces and her war industries, therefore, that the movements into Rumania and now into Bulgaria must alone have resulted in the using up of millions of gallons of fuel, all of which have to come out of Germany's dwindling supplies.
The bait which is tempting Hitler in his steadily growing difficulties is in the first case the oilfields in Iraq and Iran, capable of producing no less than 90,000,000 barrels per annum, while just across the Turkish border in the Caucasus there are the Russian oilfields capable of producing another 170,- 000,000. When it is seen that there are somewhere in the neighbourhood of 260,000,000 barrels of oil'to be had for the taking, if he can take them, it is quite understandable why Hitler should for the time being concentrate upon diplomatic moves in the Balkans and the Middle East for the purpose of getting as close as possible in order to make a grab at them. There appears to be three routes to these oilfields which Hitler has in mind. The first is by sea to Asia Minor through Salonika, not available so long as Britain controls the eastern Mediterranean, the second is across the Dardanelles and through Turkey, which Hitler is now seeking to secure by diplomatic pressure at Ankara, and the third is via the Ukraine, round the north coast of the Black Sea to the Caucasus. Improbable though this route may seem, it has been clear ever since Germany massed troops on the Rumanian-Russian border, in numbers far in excess of those necessary to maintain peace and order in that area, that the possibility of Hitler striking through the Ukraine has had always to be reckoned with.
Hitler is at present, seeking to induce Turkey to abandon her present commitments to Great Britain, but her present position' is one in which she is also committed to Russia, and if Turkey were to give way to Hitler and give his troops passage to Iraq and lran,—always supposing the British could not stop them,—she would also enable him to get so close to the Russian border between the Black and the Caspian Seas that a sudden jump upon the Russian oilfields might become a comparatively easy matter. It will be seen, therefore, that Turkey is in the strong position of having both British and Soviet support for very obvious reasons, and should be able successfully to withstand either Hitler's persuasion or threats, while he is in an increasingly dangerous position Which he is seeking to remedy at all costs.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.