Trans-Ocean, which occasionally carries very informative reports of the Sino-Japanesg situation, is responsible for one appearing yesterday, which, if correct. may ultimately indicate a very substantial change in the attitude of the Japanese Government towards its commitments in China. The Japanese Prime Minister is reported to have said that the end of the incident can come sooner than anticipated should Chiang Kai-shek be prepared, after the resignation of his present government, to take part in a new Chinese government. This does not on the face of it moderate previous Japanese announcements that they will not have anything to do with the Generalissimo, but it does point out a means, whereby Chiang, having disbanded hi: own regime, might find a place in the nev: cne which is being set up under Japanese auspices. The suggested offer, if it is ever made, of the very small sprat of some sort of office in exchange for the very large mackerel to be found in Chiang's abdication, s not likely to prove nfuch of an inducement to him to relinquish his present struggle, for what in fact is proposed is that the Generalissimo should surrender to the Peiping Government which in his eyes amounts to no more than a rebel institution, and, at its pleasure, accept, some sort of position under it. Were he to do anything of the sort he would be a most undignified figure in the eyes of the world, for having committed him-selt|so definitely to resistance of the Japanese invasion, and having sworn not to lay down the sword until China's victory is achieved, io do anything such as is suggested in the report would deny all that determination with which he has fought during the past eighteen months, and to discontinue that type of warfare which is undoubtedly giving the Japanesi authorities at the moment some cause for anxiety. Of the military successes of the invaders there cannot be the slightest doubt. They have gained substantial victories, have penetrated into the very heart of the country, and completely dominate the Chinese coast. But they have not brought the issue to a decision, and judging from all the portents that result is just as far away now as it was at the commencement of the hostilities.
Mr. Edgar Mowrer, European correspondent for the Chicago "Daily News" is quoted as responsible for the following story. *General Pei Chung-hsi, asked to explain the Chinese tactics of- withdrawal before the Japanese armies, remarked: "We are buying time) with space," an epigrammatic assessment of the situation which is adopted by Wolf Schenke in an article appearing in the "Zeitschrist fur Geopolitik," entitled "Japan in the Quagmire." Herr Schenke finds various reasons for the surprising course of the Sino-Japanese hostilities, and claims that the decisive one was that the majority of the'observers, and one of the belligerent ' parties themselves, when forecasting at the beginning of the fighting, and weighing up oppos-forces, forgot. or wrongly estimated one decisive factor—space. Those who expected a quick victory for Japan believed that Japan's military resources were so immensely superior to those of the Chinese that the space factor could be ignored, and this the trained observer, writing for a highly technical German journal, points out has since become evident as a fundamental error. Proper appreciation of the space factor and the strong use of space-destroying forces would have made all the difference and might have proved for Japan the more favourable course. He considers that Japan made a mistake when she permitted herself tobe drawn into a senseless war of attrition around Shanghai, even though it might have been found necessary to witMtiraw her small forces from this port, and thereby demonstrated the fact that the space factor had been left out of account. Herr Schenke's argument s that Japan should have employed large adequate forees for the striking of immediately decisive blows, and contends that the policy of endeavouring to settle the whole affair with comparatively small bodies of troops, which had to be somewhat slowly reinforced. played into Chinese hands.
Japanese announcements that they would follow Chiang Kai-shek wherever he went until he was rooted out, might have been statements of general military and politic policy in China, but it was certainly not fully in the mind of either the Japanese Government nor its high command. When Shanghai fell, the cry was "On to Nanking." With the collapse of Hsuchowfu the slogan "A march direct to Hankow" and it was apparently hoped that, with the successive capture of these and other important points, the Chinese would become more amenable to suggestions of peace. The fact that the Japanese forces were unable to follow the Chinese up quickly as they left these strongholds, and that after these successes the Japanese failed to deliver those swift blows which should have destroyed the retreating armies of the Chinese has permitted the operation of the space factor which has allowed the Chinese to gain time. The result is that, though the Chinese armies have sut-] fered very heavy losses, they have been given opportunities to reform, and have by no means been annihilated. Herr Schenke sums up the situation as follows 1f ihe Japanese were now, at the.last minute, to want to begin on a strategic plan of destruction, the fact would have to be noted that it is now too late. On the far side of the line running from Peking to Henkow they will find themsel a territory where the great armies that would be necessary for such a plan could no longer operate. The forces required would be far in excess of those required up to now, and success would remain extremely doubtful.
Space is permitting China to survive, and for that reason it would be best to conclude peace, If the German observer's conclusion is correct then the Japanese Prime Minister's very small sprat is unlikely to assist in the capture of the Chinese mackerel. It is possible that all these considerations are as fully apprẹ- ciated by Chiang Kai-shek as they are My the writer quoted. in which event there little hope that this very slight modification of Japanese intentions will do anything more than confirm the Chinese in their intention to continue the struggle. This process of purchasing time by space may continue for a long time to come, for in the currency with which China is purchasing time she still has plenty of resources, and a very considerable period may have to pass before they are reduced, to anything like exhaustion.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.