The forecast of the "Asahi Shimbun" as to the nature of the Japanese replies to the British, French and United States' notes on the subject of naval expansion, is probably the most intelligent anticipation of the ultimate event, As this journal pointed out there is always the possibility that Japan will refuse to give the infor-motion asked for, on the ground that there is no treaty liability now imposed upon her, and that she is free to take whatever course she pleases with regard to future naval building, It is a perfectly proper attitude for Tokyo to adopt, even if it happens to be an unfortunate one. It will, however, do nothing more than cause the signatories (o the Notes to consider what their programmes shall be in answer to that which it is believed Japan has already adopted, The nations concerned will be reinforced in that belief, because if Japan were not engaged upon plans such as have been alleged it would have been easy for her to have said so, If she does refuse to give any infor. motion only one conclusion will be drawn, and that entails the invocation of the escalator clause of the London Naval Treaty and the embarkation upon a naval arms race that will be most unfortunate to everyone concerned, Should the Japanese reply follow the terminology suggested by the "Asahi Shimbun" it will be regrettable, and the impression created abroad will be most unhappy, To suggest that invocation of the Escalator Clause is an "act of arrogance, which is a matter of no concern to the Imperial Government," may sound all very well for home consumption, but it is a diplomatic manner of cocking a snook at the three Powers concerned, The balance of the forecast reply represents nothing new, There is the usual claim that Japan's policy of autonomous armament based on non-menace and non-aggression, That will be accepted for what it appears to be worth in lew of all that has happened in recent years, in which regard it may be conceded that the completeness of the absence of aggression in China may be the best test of what the passage referred to actually means, For the rest it may be expected that the replies will contain some such reference to the question of the common upper limit as that which the Japanese journal suggests. It amounts merely to a reaffirmation of the Japanese determination to acquire naval parity with Britain and the United States. That will prove a very expensive business, and it by no means follows that the possession of such a determination assures its achievement, Economically speaking Japan is in no way fitted to engage in a building duel with the three countries which have addressed her. As long as at least two of them are convinced of the necessity of providing a margin of power above that of Japan it may be expected that they will build to the old ratio, They can do it, and, in view of the fact that the potentialities of the world situation demand that it should be done, there is no reason to believe that both Great Britain and the United States will not take the steps contemplated in their Notes and strive for that extra limit of safety which their experts have consistently preached to be absolutely necessary in their own interests, To dub the demands made in the Notes as unreasonable amounts to nothing when compared with the fact that in face of the information they possessed the Powers would have been more than a little stupid if they had not taken some such step as that which they took early this week, The Japanese reply has still to be published, but if indeed it does follow the lines suggested by the "Asahi Shimbun" it will prove just as complete an admission as if Japan had acknowledged the truth of the allegations originally made,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.