Today is-the anniversary of the incident at Liukuochiao, last year, which precipitated the hostilities between China and Japan, and it is Atting at such a time to cast in review what has happened during the past twelve months. It is not necessary to detail the various outstanding events in the campaign, but to consider general aspects from which some interesting conclusions may be derived. From the Chinese point of view the fighting has progressed along lines which were laid down at the very commencement of the Incident. It was realized that they could not hope to inflict a general defeat upon the invaders, and it was decided to fight what in effect has been a rearguard action while the Chinese drew the Japanese further and further -from the coast. In a few instances the Chinese in counterattacks have succeeded in securing minor victories, but the general success of their scheme is evidenced in the fact that the Japanese have never been able to bring] them down to positional warfare, and that, on occasions when it was believed that the Chinese would have to stand and fight it out, they have been able to extricate themselves from the traps which have been planned, notably around Shanghai and Hsuchow fu. Opposing mere flesh and blood, Teavened it is true with fanatical bravery, against the superior trained and equipped Japanese forces the Chinese have surprised not only the world but also Japan by the determination of their resistance and the' price which they are making the invaders pay for their gains. Japan has become involved in the most expensive war she has ever indulged in and at the moment there appears to be no end to the expense to which she may still be put, Whether the Chinese succeed' in damaging Japanese resources for war tothe extent it was originally hoped, remains to be seen, but there is plenty of evidence to show that the Japanese hopes for a short and inexpensive grabbing of the northern provinces of China has become something much larger and consequently more expensive. Japan may not be entirely like the Lady of Riga in this matter, but it is clear that she is sitting in a very uncomfortable saddle, What success has Japan attained for all that she is laying out? Five northern provinces have been overrun, their capitals occupied and the railways supplying them. brought under control. But it would be idle to claim that any one of those provinces has been subjugated. The continual reerudescence of guerilla warfare on a large scale in those areas, whence the ordinary Chinese armies have been driven, is suicient evidence of the fact that the hostilities in north China are no more complete than were those of the Boer War after the fall of Pretoria, and it is safe to assert that the Japanese have in no way consolidated their Positions to any degree consonant with the ordinary ideas of conquest. Provisional governments, Japanese controlled, have been Set up, but there is no secret about it whatever that their mandates run no further than the range of the rifles of the Japanese maintaining an attenuated hold upon the districts through which their armies have passed. No decisive battle has been fought, for the simple reason that it is no part of the Chinese scheme to permit themselves being drawn' into anything so foolish, and, with all their superior training and equipment, the almost traditional belief in the super-efficiency of the Japanese army has been in the eyes of foreign observers considerably modified. It is argued, and it is probably true, that the Japanese have not! been using their best troops in Chins but have been reserving them against eventualities elsewhere.
Tt may turn out, should it ever be put to the test that the other Japanese armies will have to be very much superior to that in China if those eventualities are to be handled success. The! belief in the invincibility of the Japanese army has undergone a very. decided change. The cost to Japan in manhood is not given: for: reasons known to themselves, but) thoroughly to be appreciated by others, details of the Japanese casualties have been withheld from publication in their entirety, but there is evidence available that Japanese' losses have not been light in either killed or wounded. It is quite clear that from a monetary point of view this adventure in China has-not been quite the picnic it was originally thought it would be.
Of the tale of suffering inflicted on China, enough has appeared in the columns of this journal during the past year to give some indication of the enormous price this country is being called upon to pay in defence Of its integrity. Military casualties have of necessity been heavy, but there have to be. taken into account the millions fleeing across} the plains of China destitute and sick before the advance of the invaders, and those other hundreds of thousands, if again not millions, who may be expected to die in the near future from either epidemic or famine. A. holocaust to Mars has been offered up, and the end, so far as it is possible to see is not yet. Even since Germany sought to inter-Vene in this struggle there have been con tinual peace feelers thrown out, behind the oft-repeated grim determination of the opponents, to have nothing to, do with each other and to fight until victory is assured, subterranean enquiries have been exploring the possibility of bringing the two governments to the conference table. They have failed up to the present, for neither has administered such a blow to the other as to bring about a modification of original intentions, and so far as can be seen at present China'is doomed to carry on the struggle for an indefinite time. If Chiang Kai-shek and his jovernment are satisfied that their original schemes are bearing fruit they may remain quite content with that state of affairs, believing that ultimate victory will not be gained on the field, but in the ledgers of the Japanese Treasury. The correctness of that view has still to be tested, and the economic mobilization in Japan gives no assistance, 'That has been undertaken not for the purpose of repairing the damage already done, but for the Purpose of husbanding resources against undue prolongation of hostilities, mobilization against the future and not a' remedy for the past. To suggest that -the warfare has reached a slate of stalemate would be idle, for the Japanese may still be able to inflict staggering blow upon the Chinese armies in the field, but the scorched earth policy, the lengthening of the Japanese lines of communication with increased possibilities of guerilla warfare, the grim determination of the Chinese people which the most ruth-ess frightfulness has failed to demoralize, suggests that the Japanese have progressed but a little towards their ultimate objective, Their encroachments into China look very imposing on a map, but the reality of these gains will only come when they are able to consolidate them and exercise over them a complete authority which is at present missing,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.