If there were grounds for believing that war would bring spectacular increases in world rubber consumption, it wodd be the plain duty of the authorities to take precautionary measures by way of fixing maximum prices and arranging to release an appropriate proportion of productive capacity at present unemployed. Neither of these courses has so far been employed. The only move to increase production has been that associated with the execution of the Anglo-American barter agreement. It would appear that the authorities are acting on the assumption, for the present, that the incidence of war on rubber consumption will not be great. That assumption squares with such deductions as can reasonably be made at this stage. Any breakdown of rubber consumption into specific applications reveals the automobile Industry as the dominant influence in the rubber industrys fortunes. There is no other single use which accounts for more than 10 per cent, of normal consumption, while the majority of uses, other than those relating to automobiles, account individually for only trifling quantities, 1i the war is to bring any appreciable increase in consumption of rubber over normal peace-lime levels, it must be through the medium of an expanding demand for rubber for transport purposes. Here it is necessary to differentiate between vehicles for military transport, ordinary goods transport, and passenger transport, whether public or private, and also the different results which ihe war will produce in the neutral and the belligerent areas. In the latter, there will be an expanding number of, military vehicles -which Will be subjected to heavy use; road transport may also expand as a result of decentralization in a wide range of industries; but passenger trans-Port is likely to be curtailed, while Private motoring will be reduced to a minimum. In belligerent are: therefore, the net effect of war om rubber consumption may not be striking; in any case, any increase which might result in British and French consumption of rubber would almost certainly be counteracted by the virtual elimination of Germany as a consumer of natural rubber. Germany normally takes large quantities, but she is now practically cut off from supplies and must rely on synthesised substitutes, In neutral areas, entirely different factors will be at work. The mobilization of man-power in belligerent countries, will oblige these countries to rely to a greater extent than formerly upon the agricultural and industrial products of neutral countries, and the tempo of trade and industry in neutral areas is likely to be quickened in a very considerable degree, especially in America. The increase in prosperity which America and certain other neutral countries are likely to experience can scarcely fail to exercise a favourable influence on the demand for a wide range of commodities, including rubber. It is difficult at this stage to estimate to what extent rubber consumption in neutral areas will be improved.
U. S. Consumption it is to be noted, however, that America—the most important consuming area—is already using rubber at a high rate, and that the scope for further increase is correspondingly limited. As regards other neutral European countries, war conditions might well permit a considerable increase in their consumption of rubber. But it is perhaps worth asking whether any substantial rise in their imports of British rubber would not come under the investigation of the authorities here, who might conceive ably decide to err on the side of safety, lest any large increases in imports should reach an enemy country.
The broad conclusions which emerge from this brief survey of possible consumption trends in various parts of the world are, first, that a somewhat problematical increase in consumption in Britain and France may be offset by the loss of the German and Polish markets, and possibly also the Russian market; and secondly, that there will probably be some increase in consumption in neutral areas, but that this increase may be of. no more than moderate dimensions, When to these conclusions are added the simple facts of a vast reserve of Froductive capacity, and a flexible restriction scheme which can quickly bring reserve capacity into play, the conclusion is difficult to escape that this war will not bring fabulous profits to rubber producers. It mav, however, bring them the reasonably prosperous conditions which proved se elusive in peace-time, Swan,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.