The Archive · 1938

The Fateful Day

Tomorrow it will be known whether the Soviet and Japanese governments have been able to solve the deadlock which has arisen in connection with the extension of the lease of Russian fisheries to Japan, or whether a modus vivendi has been reached to tide over the period necessary for the perfecting of a new agreement. Owing to the very firm attitude which Moscow adopted at the time of the Changkufeng incident, and has maintained ever since, an entirely new light has been thrown over Russo-Japanese relations, and the Japanese representatives are finding it increasingly difficult to persuade the Russian government io accept their view of the burning fishery gestion. M. Litvinoff, who has during this r dealt firmly with the Japanese and their arious demands, is adamant in his insistance upon the whole of outstanding Russo-Japanese questions being included in a consideration of ihe renewal of the fisheries agreement. That is opposed by Tokyo which wants to negotiate each.problem separately in the hope of obtaining further concessions which would probably not be forthcoming were a general settlement to be negotiated. Of the naivete of the Japanese contention, note has already been taken, for while Tokyo insists upon the application of the provision in the Treaty of Portsmouth to the question of the fisheries, it denies the application of other provisions applying to points upon which Soviet Russia also desires adjustment. On the whole the Russian contention seems to be the most satisfactory. It is at least consistent in its contention that if changing conditions make one set of provisions up longer operative they also vitiate the rest of the Treaty. This doctrine of changing conditions may serve the purposes of the political casuist without convincing even him, and it is more than probable that Tokyo is dealing with Moscow with its tongue in its cheek. It is unlikely that, if these negotiations fail in the ultimate result and there is no fishery agreement between the two nations, Japan will cease to fish in the waters she has rented before, but will depend upon naval means for the protection of her fishing fleets. That this will further imperil the peace of the Far East is only too apparent, for no nation worthy of its salt would tolerate such an indignity, though the probability appears to be that, unless some arrangement is arrived at, next year will see the development of a series of incidents which may serve to centre interest upon this portion of the world without actually leading to that warfare which it is in the interests of Japan at the moment carefully to avoid.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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