June 11, The report, from Ankara, that Germany is preparing 0 apply press tire upon Soviet Russia (0 secure consent for the passage of troops by land and sea from Constanza to Batum is interesting and probably very im~ portant. It is that the German high command is concentrating forces in Moldavia for that purpose the idea being again to create the old threat to the Ukraine through Bessarabia, which was somewhat reduced. when the Germans made their attack upon Greece, in the hope that the Russians would succumb to the threat, and permit Hitler to have his way. At any rate for the moment. German intrigues in Iraq failed; the rebel government has been ousted and in its place: there is the old one which was and is friendly Great Britain. That has necessitated a change of plan, It might be that, if German assistance to the Vichy forces in Syria could' be sent there in time and the British and Free French advance into that country defeated, the reverse which Germany has suffered in the Middle East might be avenged. Failing that alternative schemes must be resorted to.
While German forces with the consent_of Russia might be ferried across the Black Sea to Batum without. much interference, the danger which the Soviet has to fear is that if the Germans were ever {o get into the neighbourhood of the Caucasian oilfields, and that is precisely where they would be it they ever arrived in Batum,—they would. proceed to take advantage of the fact and supply their needs from Russian rather than. "Traian sources. It would constitute just such another penetration by fraud as those several others which have proved so success~ ful, and would relieve the Germans of fight-in their way to Iraq in the course of which could depend upon British resistance, their difficulties being increased by the great. istances involved. The main fact is that Hitler's need for oil {s becoming increasingly great, and the more this is so the greater the possibility of his resorting to all manner of Aesperate devices to supply that need.
'The concentration of large forces in Moldavia is of an importance which should not be in any way discounted, Hitler's determination not to Aight on two fronts may be modified by circumstances, and it would be dangerous to believe that' he would not do so if and when his need for ai! becomes more pressing. It will obviously be a matter: of complete unconcern on his part whether he obtains his supplies from Iraq, or from the Caucasus so long as he gets them, and if Stalin ever permitted Hitler to encroach into the area between the Black and Caspian Seas he might have the greatest difficulty in getting him out. A great deal will depend upon what action Stalin will take under German pressure. Tt would seem that his best answer would be to prepare counter measures against a possible invasion of the Urraine, though there is some doubt as to the ability of the Russian armies successfully withstand a German invasion. But against this has to be weighed the fact that should Russia permit German passage by jand round the Black Sea to Batum she will have let the Germans in for good and all.
It may be taken for granted that Hitler' will make all sorts of promises if by doing so he can get his way peacefully. He would not like at this juncture to have to fight, even successfully, with Russia, for it would mean the occupation of Inrge forces and the loss of very considerable time in a war in which time is becoming the increasingly important factor, but oil and his need for it may force him to lengths {o which originally he was reluctant to go, Another important factor in the situation' would be, providing Stalin gave way, the encirclement of Turkey. That country has valiantly withstood pressure and blandishments from Berlin from well before the commencement of the war. Its Government has frequently announced its intention of defending itsd? against aggression, but, if, the Germans got into Iraq via the Caucasus, the position of the Turks would indeed become precarious, though there is comfort to be found in the fact that the more Hitler lengthens his lines of action, the wider he spreads his forces, the weaker he must ultimately become!
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.