Two years ago today, while Japanese forces were engaged in "night manuvres" in the vicinity of Lukouchiao, some shots were alleged to have been fired at them by Chinese who afterwards disappeared. That was the commencement of a war, which has been euphemistically called the "China Incident." It does not matter now what intentions the Japanese had of confining the trouble to North China, and it appears that at one time they did intend so to localize it, the fact remains that hostilities spread until rather over a month later the environs of Shanghai became involved, and this city had to pass through a rimmer experience of fighting than occurred on the previous occasion in 1932. Attempts have been made to criticize the 'Chinese for attacking the Japanese at Shanghai, but, once the China Incident had commenced, they were entitled to strike at their enemy wherever they found him, and tone such place was Shanghai, The' immediate effect of this development was to commit the Japanese more deeply in China than it is apparent they originally intended, for it is believed that, had they remained unmolested, their scheme envisaged taking only that portion of China north of the old bed of the Yellow River, and the establishment in that area of a Government not, unlike in status that of' Manchoukuo, That scheme miscarried, and, under the plea of eradicating Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang, the Japanese extended their operations until now, at the conclusion of two years fighting, they are engaged the whole length of the' Chinese coastline and as far into the interior as the Canton-Hankow and the Peiping-Hankow Railway lines. AN the principal ports in China are in Japanese hands, and while it would be incorrect to suggest that they control the areas into which they have penetrated, or that they will be able to for a very long time to come, it is, nevertheless, true that they have disrupted, even if they have not succeeded in wiping out the due processes of the Chinese Government they are secking to destroy. The magnitude of the effort may be judged by the latest reports that Japanese has now about 40 divisions in the field in China, while it has also been claimed that the Yangtze is the channel for the supply of about one million troops in Central China.
Thus, from what was at first believed would be a comparatively local incident, involving the use of a minimum of force, Japan has become increasingly committed until the forces she is using suggest that she is engaged in a major war, which indeed she is. Of the amount of money she has spent, and is spending, and the cost of this adventure to her in the lives of her sons, there is no means of ascertaining exact figures. The returns of casualties suffered are under suspicion of be-, if considerably minimized, but from various statements which have been made by Japanese leaders from time to time it may be assumed that the cost in money is somewhere in the neighbourhood of Yen 15,000,000,000, of actual expenditure, with a loss in trade, etc, which cannot easily be estimated, To offset this it is necessary to consider her gains. With the coastline completely under Japanese control a stranglehold has been placed upon Chinese trade, and the economic life of the country has been dealt a serious blow. It is true that some trade can be carried on by means of the Burma route and ud with Soviet Russia, and military sup can be secured by the' same means, but both channels have their disadvantages which are particularly noticeable when need for Quick delivery is taken into consideration. But that is all the Japanese have secured, It is true that they are able to carry on a certain amount of business up the Yangtze, and are in fuet doing so to the exclusion of everyone else, but it is to be doubted when ther, in view' of the devastation which has been wrought, and.the consequent reduced purchasing power of the Chinese, there is very much profit in it in view of the huge outlay to which Japan has been forced, For the rest the military position appears to be one of stalemate. The incursion into China as far as the railways lines mentioned was not, even making allowance for the resistance of the Chinese really a particularly difficult feat: it would have been much more difficult had the Chinese possessed anything like the equipment of the invaders. Chiang Kai-shek and his government have withdrawn into the western fastnesses, which he always con: templated doing, and, though he and his forees can be reached by means of acroplanes, the sending in of adequate troops to bring finality to the struggle is an entirely different proposition.
The Japanese boast that there is not now spot in China which cannot be reached by air is probably true, but experience of the last few years has-convincingly shown that 'a country cannot be subjugated by such means, and that ultimate victory depends upon the bayonet, and armies of occupation, It-has been demonstrated that the areas through which the Japanese have passed are not in any real sense of the word occupied. In the portion of China which is nominally under Japanese control the greater portion has not been really subdued, while the two provisional governments set up in Nanking and Peiping have no effective jurisdietion beyond the range of a Japanese
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.